Thiago Alves vs. Matt Hughes

The one upset pick of the evening comes in this matchup between the legend Matt Hughes and the up-and-coming talent in Thiago Alves. Much has been made about Hughes’s age and abilities in the cage recently, but I still believe his wrestling style can cause a lot of trouble for Alves. The only real problem for Hughes is that his standup skills are going to be far less dynamic than Thiago’s combinations.

Alves has devastating leg kicks that can halt Hughes’s ground game by weakening him to just standing instead of shooting for takedowns. If Hughes can manage a takedown, he’ll have to rely on his power to hold top control. It’s been questioned recently if Hughes still has that power, and this is the fight he needs to prove it.

Classic striker vs. wrestler in this matchup, and I’m going to take Alves via TKO. It’s a risky pick, but someone’s got to do it.

Leland’s Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO/KO, Round 2
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Brandon Vera vs. Fabricio Werdum

I’ve flip-flopped my pick on this for quite some time now, and it’s time to put up or shut up. Brandon Vera will be my pick here for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, he’ll have the striking advantage on his feet with the added bonus of likely being lighter and having better footwork. He has some range to his strikes and being technically better will only help his stake at a win if it goes to the judges.

Secondly, I think Brandon Vera can avoid the submission on the ground if it goes there. While I think it’ll be tough for Werdum to get inside to take down Vera, Vera should be able to work some ground tactics himself to get the fight back to standing.

I’d love to pick Werdum here, but the striking war that could happen in this fight heavily favors Vera’s dynamic skillset in that department. He employs great combinations and kicks to keep his opponent guessing and off guard.

Leland’s Prediction: Brandon Vera via decision
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Marcus Davis vs. Mike Swick

As I stated in the past, I’m picking Marcus Davis in this fight. Swick has never impressed me with his gameplans or skillset in any fight. He’s a rangy striker with some power, but Davis will counter with a boxing background, awesome power, and the ability to work the ground game with his strength.

While I think Swick’s submission chokes have a shot at catching Davis trying to put Swick to the mat, Davis’s best attribute to counter would be the muscle he’s gained since moving into the UFC. I’m not inclined to believe Swick can catch him in a hold, and it would be more likely that Davis escapes to crush Swick on the floor.

In any case, I don’t see Davis having problems with Swick’s hands. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Davis could catch Swick with his heavy hands and put this one away quickly.

Leland’s Prediction: Marcus Davis via TKO/KO, Round 2
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Michael Bisping vs. Jason Day

I have a tough time picking Michael Bisping in almost every single fight I have to analyze featuring him. While I believe he possesses some solid MMA skills, I don’t think he will be able to compete near the top of the 185 pound division. I will, however, put my faith in his matchup for Saturday.

While Day has some great power in his hands, Bisping should have the all-around better skillset to defeat Day. Bisping will have more cardio, better technical standup, good takedown defense, and an uncanny ability to get himself out of horrible positions.

I expect Bisping to avoid Day’s power and work his technical boxing. I’m sure we’ll see Day try for an onslaught of strikes, but that could prove to be tough against Bisping’s range and Muay Thai training. Look for Bisping to pepper Day to a decision.

Leland’s Prediction: Michael Bisping via unanimous decision
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Quick Picks
Martin Kampmann vs. Jorge Rivera: Battle of two dynamic strikers, Rivera is coming off a win over Kendall Grove while Kampmann is finally making his return to the cage since defeating McFedries back in March of 2007. Kampmann will have some good striking as well as some slick grappling on the ground. He has an all-around toolkit to take care of Rivera. Kampmann via submission, Round 1

Nate Marquardt vs. Thales Leites: Huge step up in competition for Leites, and I don’t believe he can overcome the power of Marquardt. While both guys will be very good on the ground, I think Leites will have problems overcoming Marquardt’s conditioning and power. Marquardt via decision

Thiago Tavares vs. Matt Wiman: Thiago will have a much better ground game than Wiman, but Wiman probably has some better standup skills slightly. Wiman has never been impressive to me in his past fights, and he has a tendency to play defense late in the fight far too much. Tavares should be able to get this to the ground and to the submission quickly. Tavares via submission, Round 1

Jess Liaudin vs. Paul Taylor: I’m a bit of a fan of Taylor with his good striking skills and footwork in the cage. He also has a style that keeps coming forward, and he can take some punishment as well. Liaudin has never impressed me, and his chin is susceptible to the knockout. He has some ground game that could be dangerous, but Taylor should win this one. Taylor via decision

Jason Lambert vs. Luiz Cane: While Cane still has some impressive knockout power, he’s going to have a tough time against Jason Lambert’s mauling style on the ground. Lambert was well on his way to victory against Wilson Gouveia until he showed some sloppy standup. I don’t think he’ll make the same mistake twice. Lambert via TKO/KO, Round 2

Roan Carneiro vs. Kevin Burns: Carneiro is a BJJ black belt and is currently training at American Top Team as of Jan. 14th of this year. Look for him to begin shaping his game up to defeat these lesser opponents that the UFC is feeding him. Carneiro via submission, Round 1

Antoni Hardonk vs. Eddie Sanchez:  An evenly matched fight between two heavyweights that likely won’t be making any waves anytime soon. Hardonk is coming off an impressive win over Colin Robinson in just :17 seconds while Sanchez won a war with Aussie Soa Palelei. Hardonk should have the better standup while Sanchez will have some wrestling to draw from. I still think Hardonk can outstrike Sanchez and finish this one. Hardonk via TKO/KO, Round 1

After a highly entertaining event at the end of 2007 for the UFC, they will start things back up on Saturday with UFC 80: Rapid Fire from Newcastle, England. The event will feature the Lightweight championship title bout between Joe "Daddy" Stevenson and the rejuvenated B.J. Penn. Penn will come in as a favorite after easily demolishing Jens Pulver in his previous bout at the TUF Season 5 Finale. After a long wait for the title picture to unfold, Penn is now looking to prove that he is training harder and has refocused his energy to being the best in mixed martial arts. Fabricio Werdum will make his return to the cage after a lackluster performance against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 70: Nations Collide. Werdum has since moved to the renowned Chute Box camp to improve his striking and overall technique in the cage. He'll take on the former #1 contender in Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga who is fresh off a loss to Randy Couture. Let's take a brief look at each matchup, and we'll give you our predictions in the process.

Main Event: Joe Stevenson vs. B.J. Penn
Lightweight Championship Bout

Joe Stevenson will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. B.J. Penn has been renowned for being one of the best fighters pound for pound in the world for many years. His only knock has been his inability to go deep into fights. His cardio training was his most obvious flaw that contributed to that inability and opponents managed to squeeze out victories against him because of it. He'll have to show up in phenomenal shape with his gas tank full in order to take out the pitbull in Joe Stevenson.

On paper, Stevenson doesn't seem to have an overall advantage in any department. B.J. has been known to have very good striking ability, and has put guys out in the past using just his hands. Penn also has some of the best jiu-jitsu we've seen in the cage, and his flexibility only makes it even tougher for opponents to work him on the ground. Again, the one area in which Stevenson may hold an advantage is the cardio area. Stevenson has solid wrestling abilities with some good submission work to counter B.J., especially if he grows tired.

The big problem here for Joe is that he really doesn't offer much in any area of the fight. He shouldn't want to trade with B.J. for very long unless he can catch an aggressive Penn early. The ground is where Stevenson can dominate if he can get on top of Penn, but Penn's jiu-jitsu would likely cause Stevenson to be on the defensive, even while Penn is on his back.

This fight will come down to cardio. If Stevenson can make this 5 round battle last longer and longer as it goes on, he has a much better chance of putting Penn out for good. Penn will probably want to end this within a 3 round limit before pushing his cardio to the max. Penn's jiu-jitsu alone is scary enough to put him on top in this matchup. Stevenson is definitely a good bet though.

Leland's Prediction: B.J. Penn via submission, Round 3

I’m tired of starting my prediction of every B.J. Penn fight with, “If B.J. comes in shape, no one can beat him.” I believe B.J. Penn will come in shape, and I think he will show why many people, including myself, feel he is pound-for-pound one of the best fighters in the world.

B.J. has tremendous flexibility and uses it to his advantage to avoid takedowns. He has dynamic striking and a solid chin, as proven in his fights against Pulver, Machida and GSP.  Of course, his jiu-jitsu is also off the charts. The only knock against B.J. is his cardio. He has shown a tendency in the past to fade in the later rounds. I feel that for once, B.J. has learned his lesson and will be able to take Stevenson out.

Joe Stevenson is a very underrated fighter. Joe has a solid wrestling base, good striking, and an underrated jiu-jitsu game. Stevenson is going to have to control B.J. in this fight and set the pace of the fight. If he lets B.J. control the pace of the fight, it will be a short night for Joe Daddy. The problem for Joe in this fight is he doesn’t have a lot of ways to win. His striking isn’t crisp enough to hurt B.J., he doesn’t have the superior jiu-jitsu game, and I think he’s going to have a tough time taking Penn down. The best bet for Joe is to clinch with Penn and use that to set up his takedown. From there he should look to control top position and work some ground-and-pound. He’s going to have to be on the defensive, because B.J. can take your back at some weird angles. However, if he’s too defensive, the fight is going to get stood up. 

Joe's Prediction: B.J. Penn via TKO, Round 2
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The rest of the fights on the card with the exception of the Grove/Cote fight were all untelevised fights that were not shown on the Pay-Per-View portion. I have seen all of the fights and do have some good analysis and insight on each of those fights in our second part to our breakdown of the UFC 74 fight card.

Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote

Cote came out quick and pushed Kendall back with a quick combo to start the fight. Cote threw another combo and then clinched Kendall into the cage and tied him up. The strategy for Cote seemed to be similar to Randy Couture's strategy in that he closed the gap between himself and Gonzaga. In this first round, Cote clamped Grove to the fence and dirty boxed a few punches into Grove's midsection as he tried to close the gap so Grove could not use his size advantage or reach. Eventually, Herb Dean broke up the clinch and separated the fighters since Cote was not doing enough to keep the clinch going. Cote came out from the clinch assaulting Grove's legs with low leg kicks to mid kicks to Grove's midsection. A couple of quick exchanges in the middle with no landed punches and Grove finally rushes Cote back into the fence. Cote come back out from the fence into a Grove clinch in which Grove plows Cote into the fence behind him and begins an onslaught of knees. Before Grove could even get settle, Cote reversed Grove and gets his back into the fence. The reversal game is played against the fence as they go back and forth; Grove landing a few knees as he reverses Cote back into the fence again. After a few go's at each other, they break and separate into the middle of the Octagon. At this point, Grove begins to get confident in his standup and lands a good shot in midsequence of a good 1-2 combo followed by a high head kick that Cote blocks. Grove then lands a huge midsection kick that can be heard throughout the crowd. Cote seems unphased as Grove shoots for a takedown. Grove gets back to his feet as Cote backs up, a very weak takedown attempt by Grove. Grove and Cote battle in a clinch and as Grove throws a high knee, Cote lets go of the clinch and nails Grove with a quick right to the head. Grove drops like a pile of bricks as Cote jumps on top of Grove into full mount. After landing a few punches, Cote goes for the rear naked choke. Grove slips from his grip, but is still unable to shake Cote's mount. Cote lands 2 or 3 huge rights while on top of Grove as his left hand basically holds Grove's head in place for the beating. The fight ends as Grove is basically defenseless and obviously out of the fight.

The Breakdown

Cote did exactly what he needed to do in this fight. He completely eliminated Grove's height and reach advantage. It was a Randy Couture clinic. Cote was able to use the clinch and push Grove into the fence and work the fight with some dirty boxing. He didn't land anything incredible in the fence area, and had Grove kept the fight in the corner and taken down Cote, it would have been a different outcome. Cote was able to get one great punch from the clinch, which was obviously his gameplan from the beginning. A great gameplan and great execution from Cote.

Improvements

The most obvious was Grove's takedown skills. He tried one takedown late in the fight, and it was probably one of the weakest attempts I've seen all year. He shot for the legs as Cote walked backwards. Cote might as well have fallen down and gave Grove the takedown. He didn't sprawl and really had no defense against it. Grove didn't shoot through or follow through with the takedown though and allowed Grove to muscle him back up into a clinch that inevitable led to the big punch that started the downward spiral. He also didn't utilize his large size in the clinch enough. Take a lesson from Anderson Silva. Long legs equal big time knees. Grove used his knees to an extent, but Cote was able to keep reversing him back into the fence. The whole point of having those long legs is that you can still throw big knees even when in the clinch.

Renato Sobral vs. David Heath

Sobral just looked scary standing in the ring before the fight for this one. As they approached one another, neither tapped gloves. You could definitely sense a hatred for one another. The fight started out with some standup, a few punches, and then a left by Babalu into a takedown. Babalu relentlessly rained punches on Heath's midsection and head during the exchange. Babalu used various ju-jitsu techniques to open up Heath's guard and throw elbows into Heath's face. At one point, he landed 3-4 good elbows directly into Heath's forehead. Heath eventually is able to quickly get up and pounce on Babalu. Even when Heath is on top of Babalu, Babalu seems to still have control of the fight. He continues to land elbows and punches from his back while also attempting submission holds. Heath can't throw any punches as he is tied up defending against Babalu's submission attempts and being pelted with punches from the bottom. The round ended easily won by Babalu's domination of Heath on the ground.

In the second round, it was more of the same from the Brazilian. Babalu threw a very good left that landed on Heath's chin and then shot Heath's legs for the takedown. Heath was able to sprawl a bit and then push Babalu into the fence while in a clinch. Heath makes a huge mistake in dropping to his guard as Babalu rains elbows into Heath's forehead, opening up an unbelievable gash in his head that bled all over the mat. If you tuned into the PPV event, most people wondered where the huge blood stain came from.. it was this fight. Babalu is now punching his way through Heath's skull. For a good 2-3 minutes, Babalu continues punishing Heath from full guard with punches and elbows as Heath bleeds all over both Babalu and the mat. After a relentless pounding, Heath rolls Babalu off him finally. But the roll is no godsend for Heath. Babalu sinks in an Anaconda Choke that eventually finishes Heath.

This fight had a lot of controversy at the end due to Babalu's chokeout. He held onto the choke for about 2-3 seconds longer after Mazzagati tapped Babalu off Heath. Heath lost consciousness and Babalu finally let go and acted as if nothing had happened. Babalu was the unanimously booed by the crowd, but took his win and left the Octagon. In post-fight interviews, he admitted to holding onto it because Heath disrespected him before the fight. Word to the wise, Babalu's actions are a scar on the UFC. There was no real need to prove anything more than the already serious beatdown you laid on Heath. Come on, Babalu..

The Breakdown

There isn't much to breakdown here. Babalu was dominant on the ground, and Heath was just too slow to pickup the takedown attempts and had ZERO defense on the ground. Heath couldn't even grab onto Babalu to keep him close. It was a poor performance in ground defense by Heath and it showed with his blood all over the mat.

Improvements

Babalu's ground game looked very good. He used some of his ju-jitsu to open up Heath's guard and just rain elbows and punches all over Heath's face. Heath's major flaws were all over this fight. He had zero defensive strategy against a pure ground fighter. It was as if he came into the fight thinking he could just KO Babalu in the first exchange. Heath had no techniques to even pound Babalu when he got on top and he still took damage while he was on top of him. Heath's standup suffered as well. Babalu was able to land some stiff jabs in his transitions from standup to takedown, Heat couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. It was just overall a bad performance by David Heath.

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

The fight everyone wanted to see, but couldn't because the UFC didn't include it on the PPV. What a shame. Coming out of the gate, both fighters had a feeling out period of about a minute and a half before Guida landed a good midsection kick. Guida continued to push the pace of this fight. He took a few good blows to the face from Aurelio as he tried to push him up against the fence. The fans at this point begin to chant "Guida" from the stands. Aurelio continues to back off trying to catch Guida with counter punches. 30 seconds later, Guida pushes Aurelio back into the fence and lands two good punches to Aurelio. The fight comes back to the middle, Aurelio lands a few quick jabs, but both fighters continue to pace around the Octagon. Punch after punch, Guida and Aurelio trade with each other in the middle of the Octagon. At around the 1:30 mark, Guida lands a huge left hand that drops Aurelio to the mat. Guida jumps on top of Aurelio trying to finish the fight. Aurelio ties up Guida very well, and Guida is not able to continue striking on the ground. Guida respects Aurelio's ground game and allows the standup. With 10 seconds left in the round, Guida lands two huge punches to Aurelio's guard, and Aurelio ties up Guida on the ground. Guida wasn't able to land the punches flush, but the power was enough to put Aurelio into defensive mode.

Second round, Guida comes out throwing huge haymakers as before. Aurelio slips to the ground, but Guida doesn't get baited into a ground battle with Aurelio. They continue to circle each other throwing punches, but nothing is very effective right now. Aurelio looks to be growing weary, and is very tentative. Aurelio goes for the takedown, but Guida powers him onto his back. Guida allows the standup again. A few more exchanges with a few leg kicks from Guida, some stiff jabs from Aurelio. These small jabs definitely aren't hindering Guida at all. Guida continues to press. Aurelio goes for the takedown and is able to grab a hold of Guida. Guida is now stuck in Aurelio's guard. Guida lands a good amount of hammer fists while in the clinch on the ground while Aurelio is trying to pull his shin to Guida's face. Guida lands three huge hammer fists to Aurelio's head. Aurelio continues to hold Guida, but has done nothing to progress any type of submission attempts. Aurelio looks gassed at this point as the round ends.

More of the same in the third round. Aurelio is tired, and Guida continues to come at him with huge haymakers, landing a few early. For a good portion of the round, Guida stalked Aurelio, threw a lot of punches, landed a couple kicks, and Aurelio really answered with nothing but jabs to the air. With a minute and a half left, Guida defended off a good takedown attempt from Aurelio. Guida still looks fresh and is moving like a cat in the Octagon. Aurelio just looks horribly flat and tired and the fight ends with Guida purely dominating Aurelio in the standup game and avoiding Aurelio's takedowns.

The Breakdown

Aurelio had a lackluster performance. His cardio lacked toward the end, and he wasn't shooting enough takedown attempts to really have any chance at stopping Guida with any ground tactics. Guida's cardio was again impressive. He pushed the pace the entire fight, and always threw a lot of combos when he had Aurelio back in the fence. Guida had very strong takedown defense which essentially won him this fight and kept the fight on the feet where he was most effective.

Improvements

Not much to say here. Aurelio needs to show up to the fight loose and in charge. He was very timid and very closed in his stance. He wasn't taking any chances with his standup game, and wasn't shooting for takedown at all. If you watch is fight against Gomi, he was able to utilize a takedown because Gomi was strictly standing to him. In this fight, it was a bit different in that Guida had a strong takedown defense. Aurelio needs to learn how to blow through that and still get the takedown. Guida, on the other hand, still had slow standup. He's still throwing big haymakers, much like a Koscheck. He has versed one-two combo much like Koscheck. If he can utilize some good straight jab combos, his standup could improve significantly. I think for the sake of this fight, his game was much changed though, so it may be premature to say that he needs to immensely improve that part of his game. Aurelio did force him to keep it a standup fight while fending off a possibly takedown attempt.

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

Mir comes out looking in pretty damn good shape. I thought he looked better than he did when he fought Sylvia, and he proved it in this one. Hardonk came out the gate with a few leg kicks, and Mir came back with one of his own before stuffing punches in Hardonk's face. Hardonk defended the punches easily, but went down like a sack of potatoes to Mir's takedown. Hardonk immediately went for an omoplata, but Mir spins into half guard. Mir begins to lay some elbows into Hardonk's head, but then switches to grabbing Hardonk's arm. From half guard, Mir strongarms Hardonk's arm into a kimura attempt. Hardonk actually rolls Mir over escaping the hold for a slight second before Mir reverses the roll and rolls back on top of Hardonk. Mir reinitiates the kimura attempt. In the roll, Mir popped from half guard and now has complete side control. With even more leverage, Mir easily finished Hardonk.

There really is no explaining this fight. Mir had unbelievably superior ground tactics, and Hardonk had a well known kicking game, that's it. Mir took him down, and Hardonk could do nothing about it. Hardonk needs to get a ground game that can defend against the ju-jitsu that is rampant in this sport.

Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen comes out with two big high kicks that land, but are easily defended by Leites. Jensen presses forward as Leites lands some small leg kicks. He continues to throw high leg kicks at Leites, but has yet to land flush without Leites defending it with his hand. Jensen is now stalking Leites around the Octagon, and has picked up his punches. He backs Leites into the fence and lands a good combo to Leites. Leites drops to the ground, grabs Jensen by the legs, and throws him to the ground. Jensen catches Leites in a guillotine choke, but Leites escape it fairly easily while also gaining side control. Jensen sees that he is in trouble, and the fight is brought back to the feet. Leites still remains in a choke position even on the feet. Jensen lands a good knee as they seperate. An exchange occurs with Jensen catching Leites with a good right, but then failing to defend the takedown. Leites is now in control on top of Jensen. Leites gains Jensen's back and goes for a rear naked choke, but Jensen is able to wiggle free and get back up from the ground clinch. A few more exchanges with nothing landing from either opponent, and then Leites shoots into Jensen's midsection. Jensen powers Leites to the ground with a sprawl, and gains the top position. Jensen begins a ground n' pound game that Leites is defending fairly easily. Jensen lands a few good elbows and punches, but must stop to get away from multiple Leites armbar attempts. Eventually, Leites catches Jensen's arm in one of the attempts and rolls to sink in the armbar.

I did a preview/predictions post awhile back, and Matt has posted a preview/predictions post for his blog, so I'm going to combine the two and give everyone a general preview and our predictions of the UFC 74 card at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This is shaping up to be a very good card matchup wise. Now, to be fair, I've said this in the past and the card ended up being a snoozer or disappointing all together. This card does have a lot of even matchups though, and I'm hoping we really get some distance out of the two top fights on the card. Let's take a good look at Matt's predictions:

UFC 74 Pre-Fight Jitters

We have finished our first complete fight card analysis and breakdown for UFC 74. With any luck, these posts will help you know a little about each fighter, his styles, and techniques in order for you to better gauge their performance at UFC 74. All the predictions are my own, so you can all hound me later if I do poorly. For the record, I have a 14-2 record since UFC 73 in the MMAplayground Season. If you haven't done so already, MMAPlayground is a fantasy MMA game in which you pick fights, and can also do fantasy wagering against about 6,000 other users. It's very fun. I picked Alvin Robinson over Kenny Florian and paid for it, even though Robinson looked great early and then succumbed to Florian's great ju-jitsu. I pick upsets because there is usually at least one on each fight card. It hasn't been the case so much since UFC 73 though. Here's our current breakdown of the event with links to our articles:

Click on each fighter for a Sherdog Fighter Profile displaying record and each fight
UFC 74 Breakdown Articles
Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga. - Article
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck. - Article
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino - Article
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove - Article
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath - Article
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida - Article
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta - Article
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir - Article
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen - Article

Enjoy our articles and hopefully this will bring some intelligent conversations to the MMA communites out there on the Internet through the knowledge we've given you all on some of the up and coming fighters in the UFC, and the veterans of the UFC. If you are a new fan to the UFC, definitely check out the video analysis. It definitely gives great insight into the styles and dynamics of each fighter.

In our upcoming segment, we will be analyzing the fight card for WEC 30. Look forward to that within the next few days.

After covering both the Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga title bout and the Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck contender bout, we are turning our big guns toward the rest of the fight card at UFC 74 in Las Vegas on August 25th. The remaining fights and fighter's profiles courtesy of the fight finder at Sherdog.com are as follows:

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen

Fight breakdowns

That's how our fight card is shaping up after the two big main event fights of the night. Let's start off with the lightweights"

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Stevenson has been considered by some to be a top-notch contender in the lightweight division. After the incident with Sean Sherk testing positive for steroids and possibly being stripped of his title if the CSAC confirms and upholds their decision, Stevenson may be right in the mix to obtain the title after a few good fights. First matchup in his way is that of Kurt Pellegrino. Stevenson brings a wealth of experience to the Octagon, racking up a 27-7 record over the course of his career. His main styles are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Wrestling, and he is able to use them very effectively. His most recent battle was against Melvin Guillard. In their UFC Fight Night 9 encounter, Stevenson proved he had great standup by landing a huge blow to Guillard at the beginning of the fight, and then ground and pounding Guillard for about 10 seconds. Guillard moved to get on his feet and Stevenson got a hold of his neck and choked out Guillard by Guillotine Choke. This fight was overly impressive for Stevenson because Guillard is an excellent striker, had a longer reach, but Stevenson was able to counter and then follow with another huge jab. His feet were quick, and his head movement was dodging Guillard's few punches he did throw. Video of the fight is here. Stevenson's power in his striking has improved, and is now a force to reckon with, but his ground game is superb. He will be a handful for any fighter to take on.

Kurt Pellegrino is a very accomplished Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter. He learned from Ricardo Almeida, a world famous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu competitor, and he is also very versed in wrestling. Pellegrino is strictly a submission fighter who has recent wins over Nate Mohr, Junior Assuncao, and Jesse Chilton after losing to Drew Fickett at UFC 61. Although he hasn't beaten any top lightweights in the division yet, this fight will be Pellegrino's calling card if he is going to continue up the ranks in the lightweight division. He doesn't seem to have strong standup, so look for him to take this fight to the ground. We may see Stevenson try to keep it up for a bit because he will most likely have the stronger striking of the two. Once on the ground, I'm going to take Stevenson's ju-jitsu over Pellegrino's ju-jitsu. Although Pellegrino has a very good training background, he hasn't beaten the top of the line fighters. He did last until the 3rd round against a very technical submission fighter in Drew Fickett though. I don't see this fight ending instantly unless Stevenson's takedown defense or range keeps Pellegrino from taking him down. I think this fight could easily go the distance, Pellegrino is no slouch and has ample defense against ju-jitsu submissions. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Stevenson will take this late in the bout by submission.

Final Prediction: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson - Late 2nd round - Mid 3rd round submission/tapout

Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove
Patrick Cote comes into this fight sporting a 10-4 record with TKO win over Jason Day in TKO 29 - Repercussion, and an unanimous decision over Scott Smith in UFC 67. Cote added kickboxing and wrestling to his boxing, and currently studies Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Fabio Holanda. This may be a surprising matchup. Cote is coming off 2 wins, one being in a different organization other than the UFC with subpar fighters, but he is studying with Brazilian Top Team Canada along side Georges St. Pierre. Fabio Holanda is also a very good instructor, obtaining a black belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu. He has been less than impressive in his last 5-7 fights. He's racked up a few decision victories and submission wins by choke, but has ran into roadblocks against guys like Travis Lutter, Chris Leben, and Joe Doerksen. Cote is susceptible to ju-jitsu submissions and has proven to be unable to handle ju-jitsu fighters such as Lutter. He hasn't faced a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time, and this matchup does not look good for Cote.

Kendall Grove is coming off a convincing win over Alan Belcher. His length and reach is very intimidating in this fight. Not only is it very hard to get inside on him, he is definitely improved on the ground with his ju-jitsu. For a taller guy, it's much easier to sink in triangle chokes with the length the Grove has. He is also on a three fight win streak, and improving in every fight. If his standup has significantly improved, look for this fight to go no longer than 2 rounds. Cote is going to have his work cut out for him trying to get inside on Kendall without getting hit hard, and without getting thrown down and into a ju-jitsu clinic on the ground. I will say Cote can probably last the first round, but as he pushes the pace, I think Cote will make mistakes. He hasn't been fighting the best competition he possibly could be. He also hasn't fought a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time. I think the combination of that and Grove's length will be the end for Cote's night.

Final Prediction: Kendall Grove, 2nd round submission/tapout

Renato Sobral vs. David Heath
Sobral, or "Babalu" as he is known to the MMA community is a Brazilian ju-jitsu master in the ring with a 27-7 record, 14 wins via submission.  He is coming off 2 losses in the UFC to Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert, both via KO/TKO respectively. Sobral has said publicly that if he doesn't win his next bout, he will retire. I believe Sobral definitely does not want to do that. Sobral has had an impressive career, but he is widely known as beating Maricio "Shogun" Rua and Jeremy Horn in the same night at IFC - Global Domination. Sobral lacks knockout power, and that showed against Liddell and Lambert. He wasn't able to utilize his Brazilian ju-jitsu, and without any offensive weapons except for a ground game against guys who weren't allowing him to get them to the ground, he's useless. He has excellent ju-jitsu skills however, and he does have the ability to hang in a fight and use his ju-jitsu to control opponents. He has squeaked out 11 decisions in his career, mostly against devastating ground fighters with some standup ability. Babalu is world renowned for his training techniques and cardio conditioning as well. He shouldn't have any problems with lasting the entire bout. He has fought some of the best in the business, including Fedor Emelianenko in RINGS, to a decision. This definitely shows he has the ability to avoid the huge attacks from the big guys and still stay in the match. Ju-jitsu fighters who are able to do that always have a chance, especially when their opponent tires. Look for Sobral to do this if he can't get a submission early.

Heath is 7-1 in his career in MMA. He studies Boxing and submission wrestling, and has some impressive agility on his feet and some decent submissions. He is definitely more suited for a standup matchup against opponents. He has some pretty heavy hands and is always looking to strike. In a few interviews, he has shown that he is very determined in the striking aspect of his game. I think this may be his downfall in this matchup. Babalu can take a punch, and if he's looking to take Heath down, he's going to do so if Heath is only looking to knock his block off. To Heath's credit, he lost to Ryoto Machida due to decision as a replacement for Forrest Griffin. He was able to ward off Machida's standup, although Machida hasn't convincingly finished a fight in quite some time, winning his last 3 fights via unanimous decision. Heath doesn't have bad grappling skills, but I think if he is determined to just bang out Sobral, this fight will end quickly with a submission victory by Babalu.

Final Prediction: Renato Sobral, 2nd round submission/tapout

Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
This is one of the most talked about matchups on the card and is a pretty even fight on paper. Marcus Aurelio is a Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter with a record of 14-4 in his career. He is most notably known for choking out Takanori Gomi in    PRIDE - Bushido 10. His last two appearances haven't faired so well. He lost a split decision in a rematch with Gomi, and lost to Mitsuhiro Ishida by unanimous decision at     PRIDE - Bushido 11. Aurelio has outstanding ju-jitsu, although it hasn't shown in recent bouts. His bout against Gomi in which Aurelio arm triangle choked out Gomi had some flashes of brilliance from Aurelio. He used a very strong takedown against Gomi after countering a Gomi punch. He was able to control Gomi easily on the ground even as Gomi squirmed to get free by any means possible. Coming off of a two loss streak, Aurelio may have his hands full against the cardio machine that is Clay Guida.

Clay Guida is a 21-8 record fighter with unbelievable cardio conditioning. He recently came off a loss against Tyson Griffin in which many fans in the MMA community felt Guida won. Guida has some fierce strength and is definitely able to throwdown opponents with some huge force. He also has that extraordinary conditioning in his back pocket in this matchup. Guida is also a huge fan favorite in this fight. So, it comes down to a few factors. Can Guida really avoid Aurelio's ju-jitsu game? My gut says No. Guida may be able to fiercely throw around Aurelio, but ju-jitsu is an artform when someone is pushing you down and trying to pound you. The best guys in MMA can reverse the advantage in their favor even in the most dire situation on the ground. But Aurelio has had a poor showing in his last two fights, and I'm wondering if this is the beginning of the end for Aurelio. Guida is an unbelievably tough test for a first fight in the Octagon, and I doubt he is ready for Guida's intensity and conditioning.

This is the toughest prediction on the card. By the numbers, Aurelio has fought more top notch competition