Like an echo bouncing off the walls of the Grand Canyon, MMAWeekly confirmed what most people were talking about for the days following UFC 84’s main event bout between BJ Penn and Sean Sherk. “Sean Sherk didn’t follow his gameplan, he didn’t even shoot for a single!” said most of my friends. They were right in one part of that quote, but Sherk did in fact follow his gameplan:

Following the fight, many questioned Sherk's strategy to remain standing with Penn. "I wanted to show everyone that I can box,” said Sherk. "People want to see diversity in this sport. I'm not a one-dimensional fighter like people think I am, and I came here with something to prove.

"I wanted to gain respect back from the fans, first of all. Secondly, I wanted to give the fans something they paid for. People paid a lot of money to come see this fight, so I wanted to hopefully re-establish myself I guess is what I'm trying to say."

Now, this leads me to two questions. Was Sherk that stupid to think that this was the right time to engage this strategy against arguably one of the best lightweight strikers to ever grace the cage? Two, did Sherk actually believe he was so much more skilled than Penn to throw out his best attributes in order to strike?

First and foremost, Sherk’s judgment was completely off in this fight. He hadn’t fought in a year, and he was fighting the best lightweight fighter in the UFC who had both excellent striking and a phenomenal ground game. Instead of working his patented ground and pound techniques, he decides to strike after a long layoff from fighting. It’s illogical, I know.

Secondly, the divide in the community that Sherk’s style could beat Penn’s style and vice versa created some heated conversations between MMA fans, but should Sherk have employed a gameplan that went straight for BJ Penn’s striking strengths? Even more odd, why did Sherk continue his attempts after being peppered for most of the first two rounds? While all the shots weren’t crushing, they were damaging and getting Penn points toward a decision win. Sherk must have known by the third that he needed to step it up, yet kept throwing strikes instead of going for the takedown.

What did we learn here? Don’t bring a new style to a fight that’s so important. The reason that Sean Sherk has been so successful in the past has been his cardio and ground and pound. Coupling both those styles together causes his opponents to have to fight off their backs and prove that they have a gas tank to withstand the onslaught. Sherk never put BJ in that position.

Interestingly enough, there may actually be some merit to the argument that the Lightweight division is beginning to see the same problems that the Welterweight and Middleweight divisions have seen. While I believe the talent below Penn is very formidable and evenly matched in many capacities, I once again turn to the fact that BJ Penn is absolutely crushing at the top of the Lightweight division.

While Penn has been doubted in the past as remaining dominant for a length of time, it seems now that he has dedicated himself to the sport enough to be a dominant force for a long time at 155 pounds. It even seems feasible to think he can fight at other weight classes while remaining the 155 pound champion.

Let me ask the ultimate question though… Can either Florian or Huerta defeat Penn? In my opinion, Penn will have the advantage in both matchups. Many fans thought Sherk could topple onto Penn for the lay and pray victory, but he was unable to even sift through Penn’s accurate strikes. How would Florian or Huerta fair?

Florian is an interesting matchup. He’s scrappy, tough on the ground, and an overall decent striker. Penn still has K-1 striking abilities that would likely crush Florian in the standup game. On the ground, Penn is one of the best at 155 pounds. Huerta wouldn’t stand much more of a chance either. While he has frantic pace, a couple of timely jabs could reset rushes or bring the ground game. Unfortunately for us, the Lightweight division may have a huge talent divide once Penn defeats one of the potential contenders right now in the division.

I’ve been criticized in the past by some other writers for these supposed “jump to conclusion” thoughts when it comes to the talent divides in some of the divisions, but they have yet to be proven wrong. Middleweight remains Anderson Silva’s division, and it will likely remain that way for quite some time. Same for Welterweight and Georges St. Pierre. I don’t think Jon Fitch can stop St. Pierre in any capacity, and I’m sticking to that opinion. Penn could very well be included in that crowd.

I will say that the Lightweight division still has a lot of interesting matchups for contention though, and of course, the frantic pace of the lightweight fighters is something everyone should enjoy. Will the UFC begin looking for some Lightweight talent? I wouldn’t doubt it, especially with more of them hitting the mats in the next few months and having the potential to be cut out of the promotion.

Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn

The most anticipated bout so far this year has to be BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk. With Sherk’s positive steroid test and the UFC stripping him of his title, he definitely has much to prove to the UFC fanbase. Penn is also trying to prove that he has changed his ways from being only a fighter who relies on talent to a fighter who has the cardio and determination to dominate in the UFC. Any way you look at this fight, it’s going to be an epic war.

Stylistically, it’s a damn good matchup. Sherk has unbelievable cardio, great wrestling skills, and an active enough ground and pound game to keep the fight on the ground. Penn has K-1 striking abilities, good power, world class grappling game coupled with amazing flexibility, and an improved gas tank. Penn should have a standing advantage while Sherk’s wrestling skills should be the controlling factor on the ground. The x-factor lies in Penn’s jiu-jitsu and ability to attempt submissions with Sherk’s massive physique on top of him. If Penn can create some dangerous situations for Sherk, it could cause some shifts on the ground and potentially allow Penn to submit or at least escape to the feet where he can strike.

Historically, Sherk has only had problems with bigger Welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre had some great striking abilities to counter his shoots, and Hughes was the better wrestler. Penn will have a striking advantage, but it’ll be interesting to see how his flexibility becomes a factor in avoiding the takedowns.

Penn’s losses were to a much bigger Lyoto Machida, a controversial decision to Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, and to Matt Hughes at UFC 63. Penn claimed to have been hurt during his bout with Hughes, and it’s been speculated whether Penn simply ran out of gas due to a rib injury. Of course, that’s all in the past. A healthier Penn with a bigger gas tank could be the key to success against Sherk in this case. History would certainly point toward those areas needing improvement, and Penn has trained to do so.

Who should I pick? It’s a tough call. Many writers are leaning toward Sherk due to his wrestling ability being a huge problem for Penn. Ben Fowlkes pointed out that Penn has had problems against both St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the wrestling department, and that his standup striking hasn’t been a finishing factor since Paul Creighton. I disagree. Penn was defeating St. Pierre with below average cardio and damaged St. Pierre much more than anyone I’ve seen. Penn dominated Hughes in their first matchup, and was likely disadvantaged from the rib injury in their second fight. As for his striking, it’s still an effective way to damage opponents which usually causes them to try to shoot to the ground to recover. Penn is damaging his enemies with his strikes, but most of those opponents get submitted as they try to escape to the ground to avoid damage.

I’m going to take Penn by TKO/KO here. I think Sherk has some great submission defense, but Penn has the great striking to pick apart Sherk steadily and eventually pound him out. To be perfectly honest, I can see Penn pushing the damage to a point where Sherk sloppily shoots for horrible takedowns that leave him open for the submission, but I think Penn will want to make a statement here.

Leland’s Prediction: BJ Penn via TKO/KO, Round 3

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I’d have to see some significant changes from Tito Ortiz during the fight to give him a chance in this one. His last performance wasn’t his best, and it led to many fans claiming that Ortiz has past his prime of fighting in mixed martial arts. While I agree that he’s lost some of his old school beatdown skills, he’s still a fairly decent fighter against mid-tier talent. Is Machida a mid-tier fighter? No, he isn’t.

Ortiz has claimed that he’ll push the pace, get in Machida’s face, and put him into a world of pain on the ground where he likely won’t be able to use his elusiveness to evade. Although I believe only a quicker fighter can defeat Machida at this point and that the strategy he claims he wants to use has potential to work, can Ortiz actually pull it off? I don’t think so.

Ortiz hasn’t shown blazing speed in the cage, and Machida eats opponents alive when they bull rush him into the cage. While Machida may not have impressive knockout power, I still believe he possesses it. Great counter-striking has stopped Ortiz in the past, and Machida’s ground game isn’t a weakness for Ortiz to exploit.

Leland’s Prediction: Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

As with most of the MMA action recently, here’s a little in-depth analysis of the betting odds that have been released. Fans can head over to Bestfightodds.com for an aggregation of all the odds around the Internet, but for the most part, they fall within +/- 50. Let’s check out some of the better deals out there for those of you wanting to cash in on some underdogs.

BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk

While I adamantly made my case that BJ Penn will defeat Sean Sherk, I’m still curious about winning money. Sherk’s line is around +200 - +215, which is a solid bet considering Sherk’s dominance in the lightweight division over the years. He’s a solid fighter with a great ground game. If you think he can lay n’ pray his way to victory, by all means, place some money on him.

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I normally wouldn’t make this bet. He’s at +175 - +185 on most betting lines, and his last few performances haven’t exactly been impressive. Machida, on the other hand, is such a strategist in the cage; it’ll be hard to defeat him in any capacity. Tito has stated he’s 100% though, and at 100%, we may actually see a Tito of old. I wouldn’t bet on it personally, but if you believe Tito can really put Machida into danger on the ground, he is the underdog bet.

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

I like this line a lot. Jardine has great reach to stay away from Wanderlei for the three rounds, and it could end up being another decision matchup that sees Jardine winning. I have a bit of favoritism toward Wanderlei, but when it comes to money, bet on who you think wins the style matchup. This should be a decent bet.

Ivan Salaverry vs. Rousimar Palhares

I’ve been unbelievably impressed with Palhares since his Fury FC leglock display on two quality opponents. Negao and Acacio were crushed by his leglocks, and while Salaverry is a venerable opponent and veteran of the sport, Palhares could very well be a Paulo Filho clone.

Other action…

Yoshida vs. Koppenhaver has been a hot topic with Koppenhaver as the underdog. Stay away from that one as Yoshida has been an animal in Cage Force in Japan. He uses the cage very well to his advantage, and I don’t see Koppenhaver having an easy time with him at all. Plus, he’s only at +135 - + 150, not huge money to be won.

Etim vs. Clementi has been discussed a lot. While Clementi is my favorite to win, Etim has a chance. I would still recommend staying away from the bet on Etim though. He’s taken some beatings in the past and luckily won via some great submission work. He can’t continue to win with such luck as he moves up in competition.

Good luck with your betting everyone, and check out BetUS for your betting needs. Click the link below if you want to get started over there and make some solid bets for this weekend’s UFC event.

Once again, Dana White has gone too far. Kevin Iole's article at Yahoo! Sports this week focused on former UFC champion Frank Mir, and Dana White was quoted as stating Frank Mir's talent made him think of BJ Penn:

"Frank Mir is so talented, when I think of him and try to draw a comparison, the only person I can think of who is a fair one is B.J. Penn," said White, the UFC's outspoken president. "When they came into the UFC, they were young and cocky and had all the ability in the world. They were able to do things that other guys never could even think of doing, so they didn't have to work as hard as the others did.

"But now they're getting older and that window is closing. B.J. is finally taking his game completely seriously now and wants to leave his mark on this sport. He went out and said he would do it and he did. And now that's where Frank Mir finds himself. A committed and dedicated Frank Mir can be a very, very big factor in the heavyweight division."

Where do we even begin? First of all, how does Frank Mir remind anybody of BJ Penn? BJ Penn is one of the most talented fighters in mixed martial arts today. It's not just because he has unbelievable flexibility and great jiu-jitsu. There are plenty of talented fighters out there who have brilliant jiu-jitsu skills. One of the factors is that he is great at nearly every skill needed to be a complete fighter. He has very good striking skills that were a major factor in his wins early in his career. Is Frank Mir as complete as BJ Penn?

The answer is a resounding “No!”. The other comparisons that White makes are at least valid to an extent. Both have had great starts to their careers. Penn absolutely crushed Takanori Gomi and then defeated Matt Hughes for the UFC's Welterweight title, and Frank Mir managed to break Tim Sylvia's arm to win the UFC's Heavyweight Championship.

Once Penn returned to the UFC, he had trouble with losses to Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes at UFC 58 and 63 respectively. Penn has since won the UFC Lightweight title by defeating Joe Stevenson at UFC 80. Mir's road was different.

Mir has never been overly impressive. He lost a tough bout to Ian Freeman at UFC 38 in which he was basically dismantled in the standup game. He beat Tank Abbott... not relevant. He beat Wes Sims, but showed some signs of poor cardio in the second matchup. After winning the title and being involved in a horrible motorcycle accident, he dropped an understandable loss to Marcio Cruz, won a lackluster decision to Dan Christison, a lost a quick fight to Brandon Vera.

The biggest difference in the careers of both fighters is that Penn lost to fighters that were at the top of their games and at the top of the division. Mir lost to Cruz, a very green newcomer to the sport, and an up-and-coming Brandon Vera who simply overwhelmed him, but was just breaking out in the division. The fact is that the comparison in their careers is only skin deep. If you take a closer look, the comparison just isn't there. Mir isn't a complete fighter, and he doesn't remind me or probably anyone else except for the UFC of BJ Penn when he fights. Unless I see Mir come out with technical striking skills and putting opponents away, it'll remain that way.

After a highly entertaining event at the end of 2007 for the UFC, they will start things back up on Saturday with UFC 80: Rapid Fire from Newcastle, England. The event will feature the Lightweight championship title bout between Joe "Daddy" Stevenson and the rejuvenated B.J. Penn. Penn will come in as a favorite after easily demolishing Jens Pulver in his previous bout at the TUF Season 5 Finale. After a long wait for the title picture to unfold, Penn is now looking to prove that he is training harder and has refocused his energy to being the best in mixed martial arts. Fabricio Werdum will make his return to the cage after a lackluster performance against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 70: Nations Collide. Werdum has since moved to the renowned Chute Box camp to improve his striking and overall technique in the cage. He'll take on the former #1 contender in Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga who is fresh off a loss to Randy Couture. Let's take a brief look at each matchup, and we'll give you our predictions in the process.

Main Event: Joe Stevenson vs. B.J. Penn
Lightweight Championship Bout

Joe Stevenson will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. B.J. Penn has been renowned for being one of the best fighters pound for pound in the world for many years. His only knock has been his inability to go deep into fights. His cardio training was his most obvious flaw that contributed to that inability and opponents managed to squeeze out victories against him because of it. He'll have to show up in phenomenal shape with his gas tank full in order to take out the pitbull in Joe Stevenson.

On paper, Stevenson doesn't seem to have an overall advantage in any department. B.J. has been known to have very good striking ability, and has put guys out in the past using just his hands. Penn also has some of the best jiu-jitsu we've seen in the cage, and his flexibility only makes it even tougher for opponents to work him on the ground. Again, the one area in which Stevenson may hold an advantage is the cardio area. Stevenson has solid wrestling abilities with some good submission work to counter B.J., especially if he grows tired.

The big problem here for Joe is that he really doesn't offer much in any area of the fight. He shouldn't want to trade with B.J. for very long unless he can catch an aggressive Penn early. The ground is where Stevenson can dominate if he can get on top of Penn, but Penn's jiu-jitsu would likely cause Stevenson to be on the defensive, even while Penn is on his back.

This fight will come down to cardio. If Stevenson can make this 5 round battle last longer and longer as it goes on, he has a much better chance of putting Penn out for good. Penn will probably want to end this within a 3 round limit before pushing his cardio to the max. Penn's jiu-jitsu alone is scary enough to put him on top in this matchup. Stevenson is definitely a good bet though.

Leland's Prediction: B.J. Penn via submission, Round 3

I’m tired of starting my prediction of every B.J. Penn fight with, “If B.J. comes in shape, no one can beat him.” I believe B.J. Penn will come in shape, and I think he will show why many people, including myself, feel he is pound-for-pound one of the best fighters in the world.

B.J. has tremendous flexibility and uses it to his advantage to avoid takedowns. He has dynamic striking and a solid chin, as proven in his fights against Pulver, Machida and GSP.  Of course, his jiu-jitsu is also off the charts. The only knock against B.J. is his cardio. He has shown a tendency in the past to fade in the later rounds. I feel that for once, B.J. has learned his lesson and will be able to take Stevenson out.

Joe Stevenson is a very underrated fighter. Joe has a solid wrestling base, good striking, and an underrated jiu-jitsu game. Stevenson is going to have to control B.J. in this fight and set the pace of the fight. If he lets B.J. control the pace of the fight, it will be a short night for Joe Daddy. The problem for Joe in this fight is he doesn’t have a lot of ways to win. His striking isn’t crisp enough to hurt B.J., he doesn’t have the superior jiu-jitsu game, and I think he’s going to have a tough time taking Penn down. The best bet for Joe is to clinch with Penn and use that to set up his takedown. From there he should look to control top position and work some ground-and-pound. He’s going to have to be on the defensive, because B.J. can take your back at some weird angles. However, if he’s too defensive, the fight is going to get stood up. 

Joe's Prediction: B.J. Penn via TKO, Round 2
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The success of the UFC since the unveiling of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ has been inescapable.  One is hard pressed to explore any corner of humanity without hearing mention of Chuck Liddell or Forrest Griffin for example.  The culture of the Octagon is here in a big way.  If the growth of the last two years is any indication of what is to come, 2008 will be bigger and better than ever.  

The first ’08 offering from UFC is just days ahead and the main event of B.J. Penn - Joe Stevenson is evidence of the company’s growth alongside the maturing of the U.S. fanbase. For the first time since the resurgence of the Zuffa promotion, two lightweight fighters stand alone as the headliners on a pay-per-view offering. 

When Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca met in their now infamous title bout at UFC 73, the fight was coupled with Anderson Silva and Nathan Marquardt’s middleweight contest. The lightweight division has not been slighted in any manner by the UFC brass; it’s received its fair share of marketing and visibility. Roger Huerta, Kenny Florian and even Penn have nabbed top billing on SpikeTV, but the 155'ers have yet to drive a PPV outright. 

It’s a testament to the company and the education (self, in many respects) of the stateside fans that this is even a possibility. It was only years ago that the UFC lightweight division was dead. A four-man, two event tournament ended in a split-draw at UFC 41 between Penn and Caol Uno. The tournament was supposed to award someone the belt that Jens Pulver vacated, but instead had quite the opposite effect. The division was put on hold, and all but canned.

2004 and UFC 58 witnessed the resurfacing of the division, and return honors went to Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout. Yves Edwards and Jens Pulver both had the trumpets blaring and red carpet rolled out during their return fights, ready to be crowned the king and savior of the lightweights. Both were derailed in stunning fashion by younger, lesser known fighters. The losses by the two made for good TV, but did little to lend credibility to an already injured, hampered division. 
Enter B.J. Penn. The Hawaiian’s nomadic journey through the MMA world and weight classes has come full circle. “The Prodigy” made his lightweight return at the TUF 5 finale against the man who took the belt from him five years earlier. Penn dominated the bout and with a little convincing from Dana White, was given the opportunity to reign supreme. 

That opportunity comes on the 19th against TUF champions Stevenson. Sherk’s recent fall from grace is another blow that has been dealt to the UFC’s youngest and lightest division, but that’s all it is; just another blow. Another shot at a weight-class that has been killed more times than Kenny, but is still here, and stronger than ever.  

The division that gave us arguably three of the best five UFC fights in 2007 has been granted the chance to kick off ’08 in similar fashion. The fans and UFC have spoken, and the division finally appears secure and here to say. Something crazy could happen and throw the weight-class for a loop yet again. If history has anything to say on the matter, its words are ‘all bets are off.’  Not bad advice, especially if your betting on the fight being a bust. The fact it’s there, with top-billing, kicking off the UFC’s year says more than enough. Besides, the little guys always seem to do things in big ways.