UFC 81: Our Extensive Preview and Predictions

by LR 2/1/2008 7:28:00 AM

On Saturday night, a new Heavyweight champion will be crowned and the birth or re-birth of a career will happen for one particular fighter. Brock Lesnar will be looking to start a new career as a mixed martial arts fighter as he makes the crossover from entertainment-style pro wrestling to the fight game. His opponent, Frank Mir, hopes to impress the Mandalay Bay crowd by showing us a bit of the old Frank Mir that won the UFC Heavyweight title at one point.

The UFC's Heavyweight title will also be on the line as Tim Sylvia will take on former PRIDE Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The fight has been deemed the “interim” title bout, but it seems to merely be a tactic to keep Couture within his contract limits. This should determine the real champion. The card will also feature a lightweight bout between Tyson Griffin and Gleison Tibau, a battle between middleweights Terry Martin and Marvin Eastman, and the return of Ricardo Almeida to MMA. Jeremy Horn will also make a return to the UFC in a matchup against possible contender Nathan Marquardt.

Main Event: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Heavyweight Division

Brock Lesnar (1-0) is a complete unknown in the sport of mixed martial arts. His lone match against Min Soo Kim at K-1 Dynamite in June proved that Lesnar can at least pass guard and take down an opponent, but Kim wasn't exactly the prototypical litmus test to see if Lesnar has what it takes to be a champion. Frank Mir (10-3) could possibly be that test.

Mir is a world class jiu-jitsu practitioner with a plethora of weapons on the ground in the form of a wealth of knowledge in the submission game. That's where it ends for Frank Mir. He has the phenomenal ability to end the fight quickly once on the ground, but his standup is lacking. He isn't particularly dangerous in the striking game, and being on the ground with a much bigger, much strong Brock Lesnar could be his downfall.

Lesnar brings a wealth of wrestling credentials to the MMA world. He finished his collegiate career as a two-time NJCAA All-American, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Champion, and the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion, finishing with a ridiculous record of 106-5 overall. There is no doubt that he will have good takedown abilities, and it will be very tough to deal with Lesnar's strength. Lesnar also seems to be fairly light on his feet. It's been said that he has some decent striking and quick footwork, but those skills will be proven on Saturday night. Can Lesnar avoid the submission? That's the big question.

I simply can't pick Frank Mir in this fight for a few reasons. He won't be as strong as Lesnar, and Lesnar's wrestling skills will be tough to counter with the amount of power he has. Mir's standup is horrible, and it'd have to improve considerable if Lesnar is to be in danger of being knocked out. Mir has had too many lackluster performances in the past as well, and his cardio is always a question later in the fight.

Leland's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

From the moment this fight starts, I look for Lesnar to immediately shoot on Mir and begin to work some ground-and-pound. The question that needs to be answered is this: Is Mir going to have an answer for Lesnar from his back? Many people think so, but I don’t. I think Lesnar’s strength and wrestling ability will overpower Mir.

I can guarantee you that Lesnar has been doing nothing but training submission defense and polishing up his wrestling. If I was Mir, I would think about throwing knees sporadically. He may catch Lesnar with a knee when he shoots for a takedown. However, I think there’s a slim chance that happens. Look for a stoppage in the second round from strikes.

Joe's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

Over aggressive wrestling is not uncommon among relatively green fighters.  They stay in the danger-zone for far too long and the result is often a submission loss. Mir is vet so he’ll no doubt be relaxed entering the fight.  All the pressure is on the Lesnar as a result of his self aggrandizement, while Mir is simply on the comeback trail with the chance to fell the new kid in town. I’m going against my gut feeling, and taking Mir with a triangle-choke win.

John’s Prediction: Frank Mir via submission, Round 2
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Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Heavyweight Division

Tim Sylvia (24-3) will try to win the UFC title once again as he takes on the iron chin of Antonio Nogueira. Sylvia comes into this bout after much criticism over his win over Brandon Vera. In the bout, Sylvia and Vera both had moments in which leaning on each other was a tactic to extend the matchup and cause the crowd to boo in disapproval. Sylvia simply did what he could to win the fight, and Vera broke his hand in the first round that made his striking completely useless.

This isn't the first time Sylvia has been labeled being the cause of a boring fight. His style consists of straight jabs, some kicks, and clinches, but never any ground game. He usually tries to move in and out and rarely allows himself to get in a spot to be taken down. His main weapon in many of his fights is his physical size and reach, and it makes for some boring standup battles in which his opponents can't seem to find a way to get inside or take him down.

With that said, Nogueira has a tough task ahead of him. He has excellent jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and has some phenomenal boxing skills on his feet. The only problem is that he will lack reach on Sylvia, and it will be hard not to take heavy blows trying to get inside on Sylvia. Unless Nogueira can work a clinch and somehow put the big man down, it's going to be a downhill battle for Nogueira in the beginning. The best chance he has is by tiring Sylvia and hopefully getting him to the floor.

Can he actually achieve that goal? I can't decide, and this is the toughest pick I've had in awhile. Nogueira has taken beatings from the best in the world. Fedor crushed him with blows, and he still managed to last. He has an iron chin, great boxing, and excellent ground tactics. I have faith that he can take down Sylvia, especially considering Vera was able to do so at least once in his fight. That may be all it takes. I'll go with the long shot.

Leland's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 4

I’ve went back-and-forth on this fight the last couple of days. I’ve watched a plethora of tape on both fighters. The key to winning for Nogueira is obvious; he must get this fight to the ground. Nogueira has good boxing, but he’s going to have to work on the inside. Sylvia is going to want to stay away from Nogueira and paw at him with his jab. I can see Tim using the same style he beat Brandon Vera with. Close the distance quick with strikes and push Nogueira against the fence.

Nogueira is going to have a tough time getting inside on Tim as he doesn’t throw many hooks. He likes to throw combinations straight down the middle which leaves his opponent no room to work on the inside. If Nogueira watched any tape, he’ll know that Tim throws a lazy left jab and that he can counter that with an overhand right. I think Nogueira’s chin can keep him in the fight long enough to get Tim to the floor and submit him.

Joe's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 3

I look at the two, and simply think Nogueira is a better fighter. Minotauro has better submission skills than anyone Timmy has faced (Mir included) and has also shown real susceptibility to the combination of quick hands and control on the ground.  I see this playing out much like the battle with Couture.  As the rounds wear on, the fight gets farther from Sylvia’s reach.  Minotauro grinds out a signature win.

John’s Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via unanimous decision
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See our predictions on the other matchups including Griffin vs. Tibau, Eastman vs. Martin, Horn vs. Marquardt, and the rest of the card by clicking More...

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UFC Rundown: New matchups announced

by LR 1/23/2008 4:41:00 AM
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The UFC has been hitting the news wire frequently as of late with fighters beginning to reveal their potential matchups for their upcoming fights. Some of them are quite interesting due to the influx of newer talent that the UFC seems to be bringing along. The future is always a concern, and it looks like the UFC is giving some guys a chance to make a splash in their careers. Let's take a look.

Josh Koscheck vs. Dustin Hazelett - UFC 82

This matchup is a bit deceptive. Most people see this fight as a one-sided affair with Koscheck's outstanding wrestling pedigree dominating an unknown Dustin Hazelett. The problem here is that most fans don't see Hazelett fight since he has been featured mainly on undercards.

Hazelett (10-3) has had some phenomenal performances as of late in the cage. He submitted Jonathan Goulet at UFN 11 in impressive fashion scoring an armbar victory in just 1:14 into the first round. He's currently on a three-fight win streak, and this is definitely a move in the right direction as his skills improve.

Koscheck will be looking to begin another ascension into the upper ranks, but Hazelett's jiu-jitsu could prove to be troublesome. Nonetheless, Koscheck's top control is good, and he could essentially make another run for the title.

David Heath vs. Tim Boetsch - UFC 81

After Heath's bout was scratched from UFC 81 due to an injured Thomas Drwal, the UFC put the light heavyweight back on the card and paired him up with newcomer Tim Boetsch (6-1).

Boetsch is primarily known for his 2007 IFL semifinal battle with "The Janitor" Vladmir Matyushenko. In his only career loss, Boetsch did show an ability to survive against the technically better Matyushenko. Many consider Vladmir to still be quality UFC material, and with Boetsch taking him the distance and being a fairly green fighter, he could improve dramatically in the coming months. He'll get his chance to make something happen against Heath.

Heath hasn't been exactly impressive in his last two fights. To be fair however, Renato Sobral is a world-class grappler and Lyoto Machida could very well be a dark horse candidate for the title. Boetsch isn't at their skill level, so it should be litmus test for Boetsch, and a gauge to see where Heath is at right now.

Diego Sanchez vs. David Bielkheden - UFC 82

Although I'm still holding out for news after this fight that Marcus Davis may fight Diego, Sanchez does need to fight another battle before that can potentially happen. The UFC seems to think so as well.

Diego will be matched up with David Bielkheden (12-5). This puts an end to the rumors that Diego would fight Roan Carneiro. It also marks another Swede making his debut in the UFC, a market that the UFC seems to be hitting hard now. Per Eklund, fellow Swede, was defeated by Sam Stout in a spirited effort at UFC 80 this last weekend.

Bielkheden holds a win over current UFC fighter Charles McCarthy although it was back in February of 2004. The most notable matchup on his record is taking on Mitsuhiro Ishida at PRIDE Bushido 13 in November of 2006, dropping a decision to the Japanese wrestler.

He should prove to be an able test for Sanchez even though his name isn't known in the casual fanbase. He's a BTT member, and will have good training partners to supplement his skillset training. With a well-rounded grappling game and some power at times, he could be an upset pick.

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David Heath | Diego Sanchez | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck | UFC 81 | UFC 82 | Tim Boetsch | David Bielkheden



Babalu's meltdown: Harsh punishment or what he deserved?

by LR 8/30/2007 12:34:00 PM

Renato Sobral... to many MMA fans, he is considered one of the better MMA light heavyweights in the world. With a record of 28-7 in his MMA career, Sobral has fought in the ring against such big name fighters as Chuck Liddell, Kevin Randleman, Fedor Emelianenko, and even beat 3 fighters in one night at the IFC Global Domination event in September of 2003. Two of those fighters being "Shogun" Rua and Jeremy Horn. A very impressive record to say the least, but recently his fight career has taken a backseat to Babalu's troubled life outside of MMA. On July 14th of this year, he was arrested at the Seminole Indian Reservation Casino in Tampa, Florida and charged with two misdemeanors, one for assault and other for trespassing. This really isn't big news in the sporting world. Numerous athletes have been arrested, convicted, and still came back and made millions, i.e. Mike Tyson. The UFC fighter was in the spotlight for a day in the MMA community, but this was an offense outside the Octagon. Nobody really thought what happened on August 25th at UFC 74 would come from a guy like "Babalu" Sobral and put the sport in the spotlight instead of just himself.

The Incident

David Heath and "Babalu" Sobral squared off in their matchup at UFC 74 just like any other fight on any other card. "Babalu" had lost his last two fights and was out to prove he belonged in the UFC. David Heath was 7-1, and his last fight against Lyoto Machida was his only blemish. It was quite possibly shaping up to be a great battle, but when Steve Mazzagatti signaled the beginning of the fight; it soon became a "Babalu" Sobral beatdown. Sobral controlled most of the fight, taking down Heath at will and beating him senseless with huge elbow blows and straight punches from the guard. It became apparent after a huge gash opened up on Heath's head that this was one of the bloodiest UFC fights we've seen to date. When the fight was clearly about to end, Sobral's sunk in Anaconda Choke caused David Heath to tap. Normally in nearly all MMA matches, the fighter submitting their opponent lets go. This instance was different. "Babalu" had a vengeance against David Heath and wanted to teach him a lesson about disrespecting him. Sobral held onto the choke for two to three seconds after the Mazzagatti signaled an end to the fight and caused Heath to fall unconscious. Mazzagatti tapped on "Babalu"'s shoulder, and then tried to yank him off to no avail. Once Heath was out cold, Sobral let go and went on his way to take the victory. In the post-fight interview, Sobral claimed Heath was "cursing at him during weigh-ins" and wanted to "teach him a lesson".1  This incident has set off a hail storm of media and MMA community discussion as to what the punishment should be, what does this do to the sport, and how hard should he be punished because it does effect the sport as a whole. Let's look further into why this one incident at UFC 74 really has been blown up and possibly has major implications to the future of the UFC.

The Sentence

There isn't a complete sentence yet. The NSAC's executive director Keith Kizer handed down a withholding of Sobral's win bonus of $25,000 while the commission convenes to determine a more suitable punishment for Sobral's actions. Sobral not only openly admitted in the post-fight interviews to choking out David Heath on purpose, but he then lied to Keith Kizer in a behind-the-scenes questioning that he really didn't do it purposely but was rather making sure he was submitted.2  To top off a potential fine and suspension, Sobral's UFC contract was also cut due to the incident; although Dana White claims he was planning on cutting Sobral's contract before the incident even occurred.3 Obviously, Sobral's decision making abilities at this time were lacking, and he clearly realized he made a huge mistake. With that being said, let's hit the first big question... what should his punishment be?

Harsh Punishment?

One thing that I have seen throughout the community is the urge to try to gauge what a good punishment should be. It's very hard to determine when you are comparing what happened at UFC 74 to other sporting incidents in the past. There are many people that refer to light heavyweight boxing champion Bernard Hopkins shoving his opponent at a weigh-in and then subsequently being fined $200,000 by the commission.5 For a shove? So what does that mean for Sobral's actions? He choked a man out unconscious in an MMA bout. According to the NSAC's fine on Bernard Hopkins, we would have to literally multiply Hopkin's fine by 3 or 4 and probably ban him for life because a choke is FAR from a shove. It seems ridiculous that a shove would garner that big of a fine. But what other incidents were there in sports that resulted in big fines or suspensions:

  • Zindane was fined 3,260 pounds and 3 games by FIFA Soccer for head butting Marco Materazzi after Materazzi called Zindane's sister a whore during the World Cup Final.
  • MLB has a 20 game suspension in place for first-time steroid offenders. Players still keep their contracts.
  • Cubs catcher Michael Barrett, who sucker-punched Sox base runner A.J. Pierzynski, received a 10 game suspension.
  • Marty McSorley hit Donald Brashear over the head with a hockey stick during league play, 23 game suspension and the playoffs.

Do these incidents add up to what Sobral did? Marty McSorely's hit to Donald Brashear's cranium was much worse, very life threatening, and very stupid. It scarred the sport even more than it already had been by the non-hockey fan. But none of these guys face their contracts being completely dumped. Each team lets the league office handle the suspensions and they follow those suspensions. The MMA world is completely different and so is the UFC. In the UFC, Dana White is the President, but the Athletic Commission for the state that the event is being run in is the league office. The team isn't a team, it's an individual. So, instead of suspending a guy for 20 games and screwing his team out of his play for awhile, a fighter must have a more harsh punishment to get the point across. Sobral gets his contract cut by the UFC. In fighting sports, commissions hit you in the pocketbook. They kill your livelihood as well with suspensions. To be honest, this is one of the most effective ways I can think of to get rid of something in MMA and Boxing. If you screw up, we end your right to make money in this sport for a period of time... that's what they are saying. They haven't come to a suspension conclusion yet, but for now, Sobral can sign a new contract somewhere else. White mentioned that he would be open for discussion on a new contract at a later time, but for now, Sobral is a free agent.7  So is this a harsh punishment for the MMA fans to handle? Do we really want Dana White to cut Sobral's contract and risk losing one of the better heavyweights in the UFC?

Some would argue that Sobral's worth is underestimated as well. Wouldn't this help his hype? In my opinion, yes. Look at Tito Ortiz. Some of his highest PPV buys for events were on cards where he worked the angle of the bad guy to perfection. He talked a bunch of smack weeks before the fight, and people tuned in to see him get his ass beat down. Usually, he came out on top and fans had to buy another PPV later to hope to see his cocky attitude get blown away by another fighter. Sobral could work the same angle. His short fuse works perfectly into it as well. I see more benefit for the UFC to exploit it. Again, this is some thinking that has been thrown around the Internet in recent days.

The Big Picture

If the ruling stands and Dana White decides to never sign Sobral back, what was the big picture for the UFC? The UFC was sending a message. The message is that they want to be a classy organization that is respectful and has a duty to protect its fighters. And I completely agree with that image. These fighters may be gladiators, but they don't need to act like that outside the Octagon, or after they've already won the fight. You don't see Randy Couture lugging himself around Vegas fighting anyone on the street to prove he's the best. He's proven it where he needs to prove it, he's an ambassador to the sport, and he's a class act. Every fighter should take a lesson from Randy Couture.

With that said, a clear message has been sent to the fighters that choking someone out when it was uncalled for will result in some harsh punishment.There are also other big picture items that the UFC could be looking at. What if other commissions see this and decide not to sanction an UFC event in their state because of it? What if sponsors pull plugs because they don't want to be associated with an organization that allowed this to happen? These are all big possibilities. Dana White was probably already thinking of these possibilities right after it happened, and he really was brave in sweeping it under the table after he did what was needed to be done. The only real fortunate thing about the incident was that it wasn't seen by very many people. The 11,000+ crowd at the event and the trickling amount of MMA fans rushing to video sites to see the fight online before Zuffa scrambled to take it down. 30,000 maybe? Not having that fight on PPV saved the UFC a lot of media coverage that would normally bury the UFC for that type of incident.

I want to squeeze one opinion into this section that I think is on some MMA fans' minds. How come some of these steroid ridden athletes who tested positive before are back? What's funny about this statement is there have actually been very harsh penalties in other sports for even one positive test. Olympic sports like Track & Field have horribly bad punishments. Lifetime bans aren't completely uncommon. If you test positive in the UFC, it's much like a MLB player... the commission or league office handles it and that's that. Or if you are Dana White's best friend, then you are completely safe from contract termination. I find it very disorganized and I could see it potentially becoming a problem down the road.

My Take

My initial stance was that I thought the punishment was absurd. The UFC cuts his contract and he will likely face a fairly large fine from the NSAC. I mean, if a guy got fined $200,000 for a shove... incidently it caused a huge brawl, but fined $200,000 nonetheless for a shove, what will Sobral get? I'm sure it will be significantly lower considering the monetary wages the fighters get in the UFC is much lower than boxing. But my stance changed after White stated that he was going to most likely cancel Sobral's contract with or without the incident occurring. I agree that the man should pay a fine. Cutting his contract, after a thought process on the matter, is somewhat of a cop out. He can just move on and collect a paycheck from another organization. He doesn't learn a lesson from that. His contract was going to be cut anyways, so he moves on after he chokes a guy out and keeps making money. Basically, his pay was equivalent to losing the match to David Heath. He moves on, no foul. Wrong. He needs to be hit in the pocketbook harder, and he needs to realize that if you do that, you will not fight. I have a feeling we will see a suspension handed down from the NSAC, and that was my initial thought as to what should happen to Sobral. A fine with suspension.

I also heard a very good comparison somewhat mentioned on the Savage Dog Show on Sherdog by Jeff Sherwood. One example of this situation is baseball. One specific situation. Let's consider this... Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Clemens gets suspended for 5 games because he threw at a Blue Jay batter after Jesse Litsch and Josh Towers threw at Yankees players. Clemens was warned before he came out not to throw, but he did it anyways. He threw at a guy with a 90+ mph fastball, and hit a batter dead center in the middle of the back. How is this situation similar? Clemens was warned before the incident. Sobral knew that keeping a choke going after he was tapped to stop was illegal. Clemens went out and threw a possibly fatal pitch AT a hitter. Sobral choked out David Heath with a small chance of causing damage due to loss of oxygen. Both incidents have consequences that could end badly. So where is Roger Clemen's contract? Still in place. And why? Most likely because throwing at players or brushing players off the plate in commonplace in the MLB. MLB players also make millions of dollars a year just to play minus the endorsements. The consequence in this situation is the key to the incident's differences. They are similar incidents in the setup and execution, but the consequence is completely different. One is considered part of the game, and the other is considered ruthless. Just something to think about, not an opinion.

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UFC 74 | Renato Sobral | David Heath | Keith Kizer



UFC 74 Post-Fight Breakdown and Analysis: Part 2 of 2

by LR 8/28/2007 12:14:00 PM

The rest of the fights on the card with the exception of the Grove/Cote fight were all untelevised fights that were not shown on the Pay-Per-View portion. I have seen all of the fights and do have some good analysis and insight on each of those fights in our second part to our breakdown of the UFC 74 fight card.

Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote

Cote came out quick and pushed Kendall back with a quick combo to start the fight. Cote threw another combo and then clinched Kendall into the cage and tied him up. The strategy for Cote seemed to be similar to Randy Couture's strategy in that he closed the gap between himself and Gonzaga. In this first round, Cote clamped Grove to the fence and dirty boxed a few punches into Grove's midsection as he tried to close the gap so Grove could not use his size advantage or reach. Eventually, Herb Dean broke up the clinch and separated the fighters since Cote was not doing enough to keep the clinch going. Cote came out from the clinch assaulting Grove's legs with low leg kicks to mid kicks to Grove's midsection. A couple of quick exchanges in the middle with no landed punches and Grove finally rushes Cote back into the fence. Cote come back out from the fence into a Grove clinch in which Grove plows Cote into the fence behind him and begins an onslaught of knees. Before Grove could even get settle, Cote reversed Grove and gets his back into the fence. The reversal game is played against the fence as they go back and forth; Grove landing a few knees as he reverses Cote back into the fence again. After a few go's at each other, they break and separate into the middle of the Octagon. At this point, Grove begins to get confident in his standup and lands a good shot in midsequence of a good 1-2 combo followed by a high head kick that Cote blocks. Grove then lands a huge midsection kick that can be heard throughout the crowd. Cote seems unphased as Grove shoots for a takedown. Grove gets back to his feet as Cote backs up, a very weak takedown attempt by Grove. Grove and Cote battle in a clinch and as Grove throws a high knee, Cote lets go of the clinch and nails Grove with a quick right to the head. Grove drops like a pile of bricks as Cote jumps on top of Grove into full mount. After landing a few punches, Cote goes for the rear naked choke. Grove slips from his grip, but is still unable to shake Cote's mount. Cote lands 2 or 3 huge rights while on top of Grove as his left hand basically holds Grove's head in place for the beating. The fight ends as Grove is basically defenseless and obviously out of the fight.

The Breakdown

Cote did exactly what he needed to do in this fight. He completely eliminated Grove's height and reach advantage. It was a Randy Couture clinic. Cote was able to use the clinch and push Grove into the fence and work the fight with some dirty boxing. He didn't land anything incredible in the fence area, and had Grove kept the fight in the corner and taken down Cote, it would have been a different outcome. Cote was able to get one great punch from the clinch, which was obviously his gameplan from the beginning. A great gameplan and great execution from Cote.

Improvements

The most obvious was Grove's takedown skills. He tried one takedown late in the fight, and it was probably one of the weakest attempts I've seen all year. He shot for the legs as Cote walked backwards. Cote might as well have fallen down and gave Grove the takedown. He didn't sprawl and really had no defense against it. Grove didn't shoot through or follow through with the takedown though and allowed Grove to muscle him back up into a clinch that inevitable led to the big punch that started the downward spiral. He also didn't utilize his large size in the clinch enough. Take a lesson from Anderson Silva. Long legs equal big time knees. Grove used his knees to an extent, but Cote was able to keep reversing him back into the fence. The whole point of having those long legs is that you can still throw big knees even when in the clinch.

Renato Sobral vs. David Heath

Sobral just looked scary standing in the ring before the fight for this one. As they approached one another, neither tapped gloves. You could definitely sense a hatred for one another. The fight started out with some standup, a few punches, and then a left by Babalu into a takedown. Babalu relentlessly rained punches on Heath's midsection and head during the exchange. Babalu used various ju-jitsu techniques to open up Heath's guard and throw elbows into Heath's face. At one point, he landed 3-4 good elbows directly into Heath's forehead. Heath eventually is able to quickly get up and pounce on Babalu. Even when Heath is on top of Babalu, Babalu seems to still have control of the fight. He continues to land elbows and punches from his back while also attempting submission holds. Heath can't throw any punches as he is tied up defending against Babalu's submission attempts and being pelted with punches from the bottom. The round ended easily won by Babalu's domination of Heath on the ground.

In the second round, it was more of the same from the Brazilian. Babalu threw a very good left that landed on Heath's chin and then shot Heath's legs for the takedown. Heath was able to sprawl a bit and then push Babalu into the fence while in a clinch. Heath makes a huge mistake in dropping to his guard as Babalu rains elbows into Heath's forehead, opening up an unbelievable gash in his head that bled all over the mat. If you tuned into the PPV event, most people wondered where the huge blood stain came from.. it was this fight. Babalu is now punching his way through Heath's skull. For a good 2-3 minutes, Babalu continues punishing Heath from full guard with punches and elbows as Heath bleeds all over both Babalu and the mat. After a relentless pounding, Heath rolls Babalu off him finally. But the roll is no godsend for Heath. Babalu sinks in an Anaconda Choke that eventually finishes Heath.

This fight had a lot of controversy at the end due to Babalu's chokeout. He held onto the choke for about 2-3 seconds longer after Mazzagati tapped Babalu off Heath. Heath lost consciousness and Babalu finally let go and acted as if nothing had happened. Babalu was the unanimously booed by the crowd, but took his win and left the Octagon. In post-fight interviews, he admitted to holding onto it because Heath disrespected him before the fight. Word to the wise, Babalu's actions are a scar on the UFC. There was no real need to prove anything more than the already serious beatdown you laid on Heath. Come on, Babalu..

The Breakdown

There isn't much to breakdown here. Babalu was dominant on the ground, and Heath was just too slow to pickup the takedown attempts and had ZERO defense on the ground. Heath couldn't even grab onto Babalu to keep him close. It was a poor performance in ground defense by Heath and it showed with his blood all over the mat.

Improvements

Babalu's ground game looked very good. He used some of his ju-jitsu to open up Heath's guard and just rain elbows and punches all over Heath's face. Heath's major flaws were all over this fight. He had zero defensive strategy against a pure ground fighter. It was as if he came into the fight thinking he could just KO Babalu in the first exchange. Heath had no techniques to even pound Babalu when he got on top and he still took damage while he was on top of him. Heath's standup suffered as well. Babalu was able to land some stiff jabs in his transitions from standup to takedown, Heat couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. It was just overall a bad performance by David Heath.

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

The fight everyone wanted to see, but couldn't because the UFC didn't include it on the PPV. What a shame. Coming out of the gate, both fighters had a feeling out period of about a minute and a half before Guida landed a good midsection kick. Guida continued to push the pace of this fight. He took a few good blows to the face from Aurelio as he tried to push him up against the fence. The fans at this point begin to chant "Guida" from the stands. Aurelio continues to back off trying to catch Guida with counter punches. 30 seconds later, Guida pushes Aurelio back into the fence and lands two good punches to Aurelio. The fight comes back to the middle, Aurelio lands a few quick jabs, but both fighters continue to pace around the Octagon. Punch after punch, Guida and Aurelio trade with each other in the middle of the Octagon. At around the 1:30 mark, Guida lands a huge left hand that drops Aurelio to the mat. Guida jumps on top of Aurelio trying to finish the fight. Aurelio ties up Guida very well, and Guida is not able to continue striking on the ground. Guida respects Aurelio's ground game and allows the standup. With 10 seconds left in the round, Guida lands two huge punches to Aurelio's guard, and Aurelio ties up Guida on the ground. Guida wasn't able to land the punches flush, but the power was enough to put Aurelio into defensive mode.

Second round, Guida comes out throwing huge haymakers as before. Aurelio slips to the ground, but Guida doesn't get baited into a ground battle with Aurelio. They continue to circle each other throwing punches, but nothing is very effective right now. Aurelio looks to be growing weary, and is very tentative. Aurelio goes for the takedown, but Guida powers him onto his back. Guida allows the standup again. A few more exchanges with a few leg kicks from Guida, some stiff jabs from Aurelio. These small jabs definitely aren't hindering Guida at all. Guida continues to press. Aurelio goes for the takedown and is able to grab a hold of Guida. Guida is now stuck in Aurelio's guard. Guida lands a good amount of hammer fists while in the clinch on the ground while Aurelio is trying to pull his shin to Guida's face. Guida lands three huge hammer fists to Aurelio's head. Aurelio continues to hold Guida, but has done nothing to progress any type of submission attempts. Aurelio looks gassed at this point as the round ends.

More of the same in the third round. Aurelio is tired, and Guida continues to come at him with huge haymakers, landing a few early. For a good portion of the round, Guida stalked Aurelio, threw a lot of punches, landed a couple kicks, and Aurelio really answered with nothing but jabs to the air. With a minute and a half left, Guida defended off a good takedown attempt from Aurelio. Guida still looks fresh and is moving like a cat in the Octagon. Aurelio just looks horribly flat and tired and the fight ends with Guida purely dominating Aurelio in the standup game and avoiding Aurelio's takedowns.

The Breakdown

Aurelio had a lackluster performance. His cardio lacked toward the end, and he wasn't shooting enough takedown attempts to really have any chance at stopping Guida with any ground tactics. Guida's cardio was again impressive. He pushed the pace the entire fight, and always threw a lot of combos when he had Aurelio back in the fence. Guida had very strong takedown defense which essentially won him this fight and kept the fight on the feet where he was most effective.

Improvements

Not much to say here. Aurelio needs to show up to the fight loose and in charge. He was very timid and very closed in his stance. He wasn't taking any chances with his standup game, and wasn't shooting for takedown at all. If you watch is fight against Gomi, he was able to utilize a takedown because Gomi was strictly standing to him. In this fight, it was a bit different in that Guida had a strong takedown defense. Aurelio needs to learn how to blow through that and still get the takedown. Guida, on the other hand, still had slow standup. He's still throwing big haymakers, much like a Koscheck. He has versed one-two combo much like Koscheck. If he can utilize some good straight jab combos, his standup could improve significantly. I think for the sake of this fight, his game was much changed though, so it may be premature to say that he needs to immensely improve that part of his game. Aurelio did force him to keep it a standup fight while fending off a possibly takedown attempt.

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

Mir comes out looking in pretty damn good shape. I thought he looked better than he did when he fought Sylvia, and he proved it in this one. Hardonk came out the gate with a few leg kicks, and Mir came back with one of his own before stuffing punches in Hardonk's face. Hardonk defended the punches easily, but went down like a sack of potatoes to Mir's takedown. Hardonk immediately went for an omoplata, but Mir spins into half guard. Mir begins to lay some elbows into Hardonk's head, but then switches to grabbing Hardonk's arm. From half guard, Mir strongarms Hardonk's arm into a kimura attempt. Hardonk actually rolls Mir over escaping the hold for a slight second before Mir reverses the roll and rolls back on top of Hardonk. Mir reinitiates the kimura attempt. In the roll, Mir popped from half guard and now has complete side control. With even more leverage, Mir easily finished Hardonk.

There really is no explaining this fight. Mir had unbelievably superior ground tactics, and Hardonk had a well known kicking game, that's it. Mir took him down, and Hardonk could do nothing about it. Hardonk needs to get a ground game that can defend against the ju-jitsu that is rampant in this sport.

Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen comes out with two big high kicks that land, but are easily defended by Leites. Jensen presses forward as Leites lands some small leg kicks. He continues to throw high leg kicks at Leites, but has yet to land flush without Leites defending it with his hand. Jensen is now stalking Leites around the Octagon, and has picked up his punches. He backs Leites into the fence and lands a good combo to Leites. Leites drops to the ground, grabs Jensen by the legs, and throws him to the ground. Jensen catches Leites in a guillotine choke, but Leites escape it fairly easily while also gaining side control. Jensen sees that he is in trouble, and the fight is brought back to the feet. Leites still remains in a choke position even on the feet. Jensen lands a good knee as they seperate. An exchange occurs with Jensen catching Leites with a good right, but then failing to defend the takedown. Leites is now in control on top of Jensen. Leites gains Jensen's back and goes for a rear naked choke, but Jensen is able to wiggle free and get back up from the ground clinch. A few more exchanges with nothing landing from either opponent, and then Leites shoots into Jensen's midsection. Jensen powers Leites to the ground with a sprawl, and gains the top position. Jensen begins a ground n' pound game that Leites is defending fairly easily. Jensen lands a few good elbows and punches, but must stop to get away from multiple Leites armbar attempts. Eventually, Leites catches Jensen's arm in one of the attempts and rolls to sink in the armbar.

Overall, very good fight by Jensen. He took it to the BJJ expert, and I wouldn't really suggest much change other than to keep working on escape attempts and possibly some ju-jitsu of his own to better understand ways of escaping the holds. Jensen's kicks were phenomenol, and it was impressive that he was accurate enough to land them. Jensen also had some decent standup, but he was wild when pounding down on Leites. This was his eventual demise. Leites, on the other hand, has zero standup game. He definitely needs to somehow obtain some standup skills or he won't be able to fend off striking opponents that have decent escapes.




MMA-Analyst's UFC 74 Pre-Fight Predictions

by Matt Kaplan 8/24/2007 11:11:00 AM

I did a preview/predictions post awhile back, and Matt has posted a preview/predictions post for his blog, so I'm going to combine the two and give everyone a general preview and our predictions of the UFC 74 card at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This is shaping up to be a very good card matchup wise. Now, to be fair, I've said this in the past and the card ended up being a snoozer or disappointing all together. This card does have a lot of even matchups though, and I'm hoping we really get some distance out of the two top fights on the card. Let's take a good look at Matt's predictions:

UFC 74 Pre-Fight Jitters

Anyone else get that anxious feeling the day before a big event? The odds are that the only physical activity I'll be doing during the fights is getting up for some more White Castle, but I feel as if I'm fighting tomorrow.

Anyway, here's how I see tomorrow night's UFC 74 card. Please note that my picks are a combination of whom I think will win, as well as whom I want to win.

Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

I truly believe that Gonzaga has the right combination of size, power, grappling, submission skills, and striking to dethrone the older, smaller Randy Couture. Gonzaga's stand-up attack benefited greatly from his time with Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua, and the rest of the Chute Boxe guys a few years back, and we all saw how dangerous he could be from inside the guard. Wanderlei and Rua have each said, on separate occasions, that they believe Gonzaga has the tools to defeat Couture.

Nonetheless, my heart is with Randy tomorrow. I didn't think he could beat Liddell, and he did. I didn't think he could beat Belfort, and he did. I thought, for sure, that Sylvia would overwhelm the newly un-retired Randy. Wrong again. I believe that tomorrow night we'll see a Randy Couture that's better than the one who beat up on Tim Sylvia at UFC 68. No one devises and executes a game plan like Randy (well, maybe Fedor), whose game is constantly evolving and surprising millions.

Matt's Pick: Randy Couture
LR's Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga

Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane

I think Huerta has a lot to lose in this fight. If he wins, look for him to be in the forefront of the lightweight championship picture. He's young, the ladies seem to dig him, he's got a great story, and he speaks Spanish: Dana's all over that. In Crane, Huerta definitely faces his toughest opponent to date, so don't buy into all the ridiculousness about Huerta only fighting UFC first-timers.

Well, that is true, but Crane is a King of the Cage lightweight world champion and a Ring of Fire lightweight champion. He earned a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from the Gracie Barra academy in Rio de Janeiro and is a former world jiu-jitsu champion and three-time Brazilian National jiu-jitsu champion. Not to mention that he's also a highly decorated grappler.

Matt's Pick: Albert Crane (upset of the night!)
LR's Pick: Alberto Crane via omoplata, lol, maybe not that, but I am betting on Crane to win

Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St-Pierre

Luke Cummo said it best: "This fight will be a battle of athleticism." Both are supremely athletic, but as I've said all along, I think that GSP does a better job of putting it all together as a mixed martial artist.

I know that the UFC wants us to believe that Koscheck is more than just a wrestler and that his much-improved striking is also a dangerous weapon, but I'm not buying it. In fact, the UFC seems to have had a tough time collecting highlights of Koscheck on his feet. How many times do we need to see Koscheck land a stiff jab to Diego Sanchez' forehead in slow motion??? His highlight reel even shows him throwing the same head kick (that did not connect) to Diego from different angles -- also in slow motion. Diego Sanchez virtually stood in front of Koscheck as if he wanted to box him, and although Koscheck was the aggressor, he didn't seem to overwhelm Diego with his striking.

In the days leading up to the fight, Koscheck seems to be pulling a Rashad Evans - an obvious attempt to show some "personality" by offering dim-witted, obviously fabricated trash talk, which I find both frustrating and amusing.

I think that GSP will come out with his head in the right place and give Koscheck the beating that Diego didn't. Look for an improved guard game from GSP, and don't be surprised by GSP's surprisingly good wrestling. GSP is the better fighter and will show the world that tomorrow night.

Matt's pick: GSP (all day)
LR's pick: GSP by brutal KO.

Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Joe Daddy is a Kodiak MMA favorite, and I think that a win over Pellegrino would catapult him to the forefront of the UFC lightweight class. Joe Daddy has had a pretty easy run as a lightweight, overpowering and choking out both Melvin Guillard and Dokonjonosuke Mishima.

Pellegrino is a bad-ass wrestler with great jiu-jitsu who will surely be fighting with friend and Team Armory stablemate Hermes Franca in mind. Pellegrino is a decorated grappler whose strength lies in his takedown abilities, particularly his slams. His stand-up game, however, has been underwhelming in the UFC.

Not only is Joe Daddy himself an accomplished wrestler, but if Pellegrino goes in for a takedown, sticks his head in the wrong place, and gives Joe an opportunity to slap those powerful arms around Pellegrino's neck, we might very well see The Daddy earn a third consecutive submission win by choke. Not that crazy a scenario, actually.

Overall, I think that Joe is a stronger, more experienced fighter with far superior striking. Look for Joe to keep this one on the feet for as long as he can.

Matt's Pick: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson
LR's Pick" Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove

I've been waiting for Grove to make a big splash in the middleweight division, and I think this is the fight in which he'll do it.

Cote is definitely a tough striker, but I think that Grove presents a lot of problems for Cote. At 6'6" Grove is a nightmare in the clinch - knees, elbows, punches, everything. Grove has also been working out as part of Xtreme Couture, so we can expect a solid takedown and submission defenses from the big Hawaiian. Cote loves to bang (even though his most recent win over Scott Smith was lackluster) but so does Grove, who attacks with relentless precision.

Stylistically, a forward-charging slugger with decent submission skills, like Cote, is a good match for someone like Grove, who can punish you in a number of ways. And based on how Cote looked against Scott Smith, whose not nearly as complete a striker as Grove, Cote's best chance at victory is a knockout blow.

Matt's Pick: Kendall Grove
LR's Pick: Kendall Grove

Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Davis Heath

Simply put, Babalu needs this win. Badly. He's lost his last two UFC fights and did so in similar fashion: he rushed in against powerful strikers and was dropped. Babalu said that if he loses this fight, he's retiring (which I don't entirely believe). Regardless, the 205-lb. division is deeper than ever, and babalu can't affords to slide too far down the food chain.

To his credit, Babalu has defeated Shogun Rua, Jeremy Horn, and Trevor Prangley in one night (as part of a 2003 IFC event), and he once went the distance with Fedor Emelianenko. Babalu's grappling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu is top-notch, while Heath is primarily a boxer. If Heath comes in swinging, looking for the big punch, Babalu will take him apart with his submission game. Heath is no Chuck Liddell, and Babalu (hopefully) knows better than to abandon his jiu-jitsu skills in favor of banging away with a puncher like Heath.

Matt's Pick: Babalu Sobral
LR's Pick: Babalu

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

If you don't know about Aurelio, you might be in for quite a treat. "Maximus" is a former Pride Bushido star who has excellent jiu-jitsu, solid takedowns, and a win over Pride lightweight champion Takanori Gomi. He's coming off of two losses, while his Guida, despite losing a bullshit split decision to Tyson Griffin at UFC 72 and another decision loss to Din Thomas before that, seems to have momentum on his side.

Guida is non-stop action and he seems to transition well from one aspect of the fight game to another. Guida is an excellent groundfighter with furious strength and speed and fast hands that he's more than willing to let fly. Guida has faced top competition in Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin, and I think that he'll be more than ready for Aurelio, who hasn't looked too good recently. I think that Guida's athleticism, skill, and conditioning will win it for him.

Matt's Pick: Clay Guida
LR's Pick: Guida by cardio machine decision

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

With the recent additions to the UFC heavyweight divsion, it might be hard for some fans to really get excited for this fight. Hardonk is a relative unknown to most UFC fans, Mir has looked unimpressive since the motorcycle accident and surgery that forced him to vacate his heavyweight belt, and this fight has neither title nor top contender implications.

But still, I'd love to see the very talented, very skilled Mir fulfill the promise of his vast potential with an impressive showing. If not, we probably won't be seeing too much more of Frank Mir in the UFC.

Matt's Pick: Frank Mir
LR's Pick: Mir looked ok at weight in, I think his BJJ will still be superior, Mir by submission

Thales Lietes vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen is a long-time middleweight who has good submission skills and loves to stand and bang. He's enjoyed success in several smaller promotions, but better bring his A-game against a very dangerous Thales Lietes.

Against Pete Sell and Floyd Sword, Lietes has shown that he has the striking, ground-and-pound, and submission game to be a real force in the UFC middleweight division. Lietes' black belt jiu-jitsu skills should ward off any submission attempts from Jensen, and based on how effectively pounded away on a very strong Pete Sell back at UFC 69, I expect Lietes to pick up his third straight UFC win.

Matt's Pick: Thales Lietes
LR's Pick: Thales Leites

This interview was conducted by Matt Kaplan from Kodiak MMA and is a contribution to MMA-analyst.com. Check out his blog!

You can read all of LR's in-depth analysis, and there is a lot of it, at this link here.


UFC 74: Complete Fight Card Analysis and Breakdown

by LR 8/15/2007 6:04:00 AM

We have finished our first complete fight card analysis and breakdown for UFC 74. With any luck, these posts will help you know a little about each fighter, his styles, and techniques in order for you to better gauge their performance at UFC 74. All the predictions are my own, so you can all hound me later if I do poorly. For the record, I have a 14-2 record since UFC 73 in the MMAplayground Season. If you haven't done so already, MMAPlayground is a fantasy MMA game in which you pick fights, and can also do fantasy wagering against about 6,000 other users. It's very fun. I picked Alvin Robinson over Kenny Florian and paid for it, even though Robinson looked great early and then succumbed to Florian's great ju-jitsu. I pick upsets because there is usually at least one on each fight card. It hasn't been the case so much since UFC 73 though. Here's our current breakdown of the event with links to our articles:

Click on each fighter for a Sherdog Fighter Profile displaying record and each fight
UFC 74 Breakdown Articles

Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga. - Article
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck. - Article
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino - Article
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove - Article
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath - Article
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida - Article
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta - Article
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir - Article
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen - Article

Enjoy our articles and hopefully this will bring some intelligent conversations to the MMA communites out there on the Internet through the knowledge we've given you all on some of the up and coming fighters in the UFC, and the veterans of the UFC. If you are a new fan to the UFC, definitely check out the video analysis. It definitely gives great insight into the styles and dynamics of each fighter.

In our upcoming segment, we will be analyzing the fight card for WEC 30. Look forward to that within the next few days.



Research, Statistics, and Predictions on the UFC 74 Fight Card

by LR 8/13/2007 6:02:00 AM

After covering both the Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga title bout and the Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck contender bout, we are turning our big guns toward the rest of the fight card at UFC 74 in Las Vegas on August 25th. The remaining fights and fighter's profiles courtesy of the fight finder at Sherdog.com are as follows:

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen

Fight breakdowns

That's how our fight card is shaping up after the two big main event fights of the night. Let's start off with the lightweights"

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Joe StevensonStevenson has been considered by some to be a top-notch contender in the lightweight division. After the incident with Sean Sherk testing positive for steroids and possibly being stripped of his title if the CSAC confirms and upholds their decision, Stevenson may be right in the mix to obtain the title after a few good fights. First matchup in his way is that of Kurt Pellegrino. Stevenson brings a wealth of experience to the Octagon, racking up a 27-7 record over the course of his career. His main styles are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Wrestling, and he is able to use them very effectively. His most recent battle was against Melvin Guillard. In their UFC Fight Night 9 encounter, Stevenson proved he had great standup by landing a huge blow to Guillard at the beginning of the fight, and then ground and pounding Guillard for about 10 seconds. Guillard moved to get on his feet and Stevenson got a hold of his neck and choked out Guillard by Guillotine Choke. This fight was overly impressive for Stevenson because Guillard is an excellent striker, had a longer reach, but Stevenson was able to counter and then follow with another huge jab. His feet were quick, and his head movement was dodging Guillard's few punches he did throw. Video of the fight is here. Stevenson's power in his striking has improved, and is now a force to reckon with, but his ground game is superb. He will be a handful for any fighter to take on.

Kurt Pellegrino is a very accomplished Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter. He learned from
Ricardo Almeida, a world famous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu competitor, and he is also very versed in wrestling. Pellegrino is strictly a submission fighter who has recent wins over Nate Mohr, Junior Assuncao, and Jesse Chilton after losing to Drew Fickett at UFC 61. Although he hasn't beaten any top lightweights in the division yet, this fight will be Pellegrino's calling card if he is going to continue up the ranks in the lightweight division. He doesn't seem to have strong standup, so look for him to take this fight to the ground. We may see Stevenson try to keep it up for a bit because he will most likely have the stronger striking of the two. Once on the ground, I'm going to take Stevenson's ju-jitsu over Pellegrino's ju-jitsu. Although Pellegrino has a very good training background, he hasn't beaten the top of the line fighters. He did last until the 3rd round against a very technical submission fighter in Drew Fickett though. I don't see this fight ending instantly unless Stevenson's takedown defense or range keeps Pellegrino from taking him down. I think this fight could easily go the distance, Pellegrino is no slouch and has ample defense against ju-jitsu submissions. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Stevenson will take this late in the bout by submission.

Final Prediction: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson - Late 2nd round - Mid 3rd round submission/tapout

Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove
Patrick Cote comes into this fight sporting a 10-4 record with TKO win over
Jason Day in TKO 29 - Repercussion, and an unanimous decision over Scott Smith in UFC 67. Cote added kickboxing and wrestling to his boxing, and currently studies Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Fabio Holanda. This may be a surprising matchup. Cote is coming off 2 wins, one being in a different organization other than the UFC with subpar fighters, but he is studying with Brazilian Top Team Canada along side Georges St. Pierre. Fabio Holanda is also a very good instructor, obtaining a black belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu. He has been less than impressive in his last 5-7 fights. He's racked up a few decision victories and submission wins by choke, but has ran into roadblocks against guys like Travis Lutter, Chris Leben, and Joe Doerksen. Cote is susceptible to ju-jitsu submissions and has proven to be unable to handle ju-jitsu fighters such as Lutter. He hasn't faced a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time, and this matchup does not look good for Cote.

Kendall Grove is coming off a convincing win over
Alan Belcher. His length and reach is very intimidating in this fight. Not only is it very hard to get inside on him, he is definitely improved on the ground with his ju-jitsu. For a taller guy, it's much easier to sink in triangle chokes with the length the Grove has. He is also on a three fight win streak, and improving in every fight. If his standup has significantly improved, look for this fight to go no longer than 2 rounds. Cote is going to have his work cut out for him trying to get inside on Kendall without getting hit hard, and without getting thrown down and into a ju-jitsu clinic on the ground. I will say Cote can probably last the first round, but as he pushes the pace, I think Cote will make mistakes. He hasn't been fighting the best competition he possibly could be. He also hasn't fought a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time. I think the combination of that and Grove's length will be the end for Cote's night.

Final Prediction: Kendall Grove, 2nd round submission/tapout

Renato Sobral vs. David Heath
Sobral, or "Babalu" as he is known to the MMA community is a Brazilian ju-jitsu master in the ring with a 27-7 record, 14 wins via submission.  He is coming off 2 losses in the UFC to Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert, both via KO/TKO respectively. Sobral has said publicly that if he doesn't win his next bout, he will retire. I believe Sobral definitely does not want to do that. Sobral has had an impressive career, but he is widely known as beating Maricio "Shogun" Rua and Jeremy Horn in the same night at IFC - Global Domination. Sobral lacks knockout power, and that showed against Liddell and Lambert. He wasn't able to utilize his Brazilian ju-jitsu, and without any offensive weapons except for a ground game against guys who weren't allowing him to get them to the ground, he's useless. He has excellent ju-jitsu skills however, and he does have the ability to hang in a fight and use his ju-jitsu to control opponents. He has squeaked out 11 decisions in his career, mostly against devastating ground fighters with some standup ability. Babalu is world renowned for his training techniques and cardio conditioning as well. He shouldn't have any problems with lasting the entire bout. He has fought some of the best in the business, including Fedor Emelianenko in RINGS, to a decision. This definitely shows he has the ability to avoid the huge attacks from the big guys and still stay in the match. Ju-jitsu fighters who are able to do that always have a chance, especially when their opponent tires. Look for Sobral to do this if he can't get a submission early.

Heath