Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn

The most anticipated bout so far this year has to be BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk. With Sherk’s positive steroid test and the UFC stripping him of his title, he definitely has much to prove to the UFC fanbase. Penn is also trying to prove that he has changed his ways from being only a fighter who relies on talent to a fighter who has the cardio and determination to dominate in the UFC. Any way you look at this fight, it’s going to be an epic war.

Stylistically, it’s a damn good matchup. Sherk has unbelievable cardio, great wrestling skills, and an active enough ground and pound game to keep the fight on the ground. Penn has K-1 striking abilities, good power, world class grappling game coupled with amazing flexibility, and an improved gas tank. Penn should have a standing advantage while Sherk’s wrestling skills should be the controlling factor on the ground. The x-factor lies in Penn’s jiu-jitsu and ability to attempt submissions with Sherk’s massive physique on top of him. If Penn can create some dangerous situations for Sherk, it could cause some shifts on the ground and potentially allow Penn to submit or at least escape to the feet where he can strike.

Historically, Sherk has only had problems with bigger Welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre had some great striking abilities to counter his shoots, and Hughes was the better wrestler. Penn will have a striking advantage, but it’ll be interesting to see how his flexibility becomes a factor in avoiding the takedowns.

Penn’s losses were to a much bigger Lyoto Machida, a controversial decision to Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, and to Matt Hughes at UFC 63. Penn claimed to have been hurt during his bout with Hughes, and it’s been speculated whether Penn simply ran out of gas due to a rib injury. Of course, that’s all in the past. A healthier Penn with a bigger gas tank could be the key to success against Sherk in this case. History would certainly point toward those areas needing improvement, and Penn has trained to do so.

Who should I pick? It’s a tough call. Many writers are leaning toward Sherk due to his wrestling ability being a huge problem for Penn. Ben Fowlkes pointed out that Penn has had problems against both St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the wrestling department, and that his standup striking hasn’t been a finishing factor since Paul Creighton. I disagree. Penn was defeating St. Pierre with below average cardio and damaged St. Pierre much more than anyone I’ve seen. Penn dominated Hughes in their first matchup, and was likely disadvantaged from the rib injury in their second fight. As for his striking, it’s still an effective way to damage opponents which usually causes them to try to shoot to the ground to recover. Penn is damaging his enemies with his strikes, but most of those opponents get submitted as they try to escape to the ground to avoid damage.

I’m going to take Penn by TKO/KO here. I think Sherk has some great submission defense, but Penn has the great striking to pick apart Sherk steadily and eventually pound him out. To be perfectly honest, I can see Penn pushing the damage to a point where Sherk sloppily shoots for horrible takedowns that leave him open for the submission, but I think Penn will want to make a statement here.

Leland’s Prediction: BJ Penn via TKO/KO, Round 3

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I’d have to see some significant changes from Tito Ortiz during the fight to give him a chance in this one. His last performance wasn’t his best, and it led to many fans claiming that Ortiz has past his prime of fighting in mixed martial arts. While I agree that he’s lost some of his old school beatdown skills, he’s still a fairly decent fighter against mid-tier talent. Is Machida a mid-tier fighter? No, he isn’t.

Ortiz has claimed that he’ll push the pace, get in Machida’s face, and put him into a world of pain on the ground where he likely won’t be able to use his elusiveness to evade. Although I believe only a quicker fighter can defeat Machida at this point and that the strategy he claims he wants to use has potential to work, can Ortiz actually pull it off? I don’t think so.

Ortiz hasn’t shown blazing speed in the cage, and Machida eats opponents alive when they bull rush him into the cage. While Machida may not have impressive knockout power, I still believe he possesses it. Great counter-striking has stopped Ortiz in the past, and Machida’s ground game isn’t a weakness for Ortiz to exploit.

Leland’s Prediction: Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

Fightlinker pointed this out in a posting on their website, and I just got around to checking out the article from MMAWeekly on Yahoo! Sports this afternoon. I must say that Mitch Gobetz is likely trying to create some hype around Gouveia’s matchup with Goran Reljik, but the article smells of garbage claims. While I think Wilson Gouveia is a venerable opponent in the mid-tier of the Light Heavyweight division, I fail to see how Gouveia defeating Goran Reljik would “propel” him into a contention spot or even a mention of being considered in the contention group of fighters. Here are a few statements that I’m calling “inventive”:

• In his most recent fight, Gouveia faced off against the highly touted Jason Lambert. He passed his test with flying colors, knocking out Lambert in the second round to secure a place for himself in the list of top contenders at 205 pounds.

Giving credit where credit is due, Fightlinker tells the tale of how Gouveia was being dominated until he took advantage of Lambert’s horrible flailing striking skills. Passing the test with flying colors was hardly the situation in that battle and Gouveia barely escaped. The fight also proved that Gouveia really won’t be able to break into the contention as he was dominated by the top control game of Lambert.

• When Gouveia knocked out Lambert, most would believe that his next fight would be against a top ranked opponent. While Gouveia is slightly disappointed about not getting a top ranked contender, he does not take Reljik lightly.

Who was surprised that Gouveia didn't get to fight a top ranked opponent after defeating Lambert? I sure wasn’t. What justifies the idea that he deserves a top ranked opponent? If Dana White’s history of creating matchups is any indication, being dominated and luckily winning in the end surely doesn’t deliver you to the promise land that is contention for the UFC’s light heavyweight title. Gouveia definitely needs more fights, and the LHW division has such a large roster of great fighters. It’ll likely be awhile before you even think about entering contention.

While these are blatantly aimed at getting this fight some recognition and Gouveia some time to show his drive to want to fight mixed martial arts and for the title, I still get a sense that Gouveia is underestimating Reljik excessively. He mentions in multiple quotes that he “thought he’d get a tough fight” implying that Reljik will be a pushover. He claims he will knockout Reljik and that he’s going to try for one of the big bonuses as well. It just seems a bit much for Gouveia to be spouting off just because he caught a sloppy striking Jason Lambert after being punished on the ground.

Prove me wrong, Wilson.