UFC 88 Breakthrough: Place your bets!

by Leland Roling 9/6/2008 4:55:00 AM
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Make me some money!

UFC 88 had one of the best betting battles that I've seen in quite awhile in Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Karo Parisyan. Unfortunately, Parisyan pulled out with a back injury, and Yoshida won't get the chance to prove that he is a force to be reckoned with in the division. Let's check out some of the other bargains that could pay off.

Dan Henderson (-190 to -220) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+190 to +155)

Many fight fans who have followed the sport for quite some time are riding the Henderson bandwagon in this matchup. I would tend to agree that Henderson has the wrestling background to counter Palhares's ground attack, and his standup will be much more seasoned than anything Palhares can bring to the Octagon. Nonetheless, Palhares could be the next Paulo Filho. He has massive power in the submission game, and his transition work is becoming something we should all pay to see. It may be worth a small play.

Kurt Pellegrino (+250 to +230) vs. Thiago Tavares (-325 to -280)

This was a surprise to see Pellegrino at such a huge underdog value. While he has had some performances that haven't been reminiscent of some of his earlier matchups, it is a possibility that he has run into some of the up and coming talent in the UFC in his last few fights, I.e. Nathan Diaz. Tavares had a bad performance against Matt Wiman, or we could simply come to the conclusion that Wiman is improving vastly. Either way, both fighters have something to prove, and they should be evenly matched here. The x-factor comes down to Pellegrino's cardio once again. He has some gritty ground and pound, but Tavares has the slick jiu-jitsu to create some submission attempts. This could be a great line to win on.

Martin Kampmann (+140 to +130) vs. Nate Marquardt (-170 to -150)

Kampmann is probably forgotten by most casual fans, or isn't known whatsoever by the new breed of fans. He is, however, a very explosive striker with the added bonus of some venerable grappling skills on the ground. Marquardt will be able to counter Kampmann on the floor, but can he do so after being wrecked on the feet? We'll find out. Kampmann is the small underdog in this fight, and I believe Kampmann is returning to the form we're accustomed to seeing. He could potentially be making a run for title contention with a win.

Jason Lambert (+140) vs. Jason MacDonald (-180 to -150)

Lambert moves down in weight, but should come into this fight much bigger than MacDonald. It's going to be interesting to see if MacDonald can counter Lambert's controlling top position and ground n' pound. It may be worth a small play on Lambert here since MacDonald doesn't threaten much in the boxing game.

Parlays and stay aways...

I'd be hesitant to be on Matt Hamill at UFC 88. While his wrestling combined with power could cause Franklin some problems, Franklin still has better standup and good jiu-jitsu on the ground to counter Hamill. Stay away from Rashad Evans! He won't have the range to reach Chuck, and Chuck has enough experience to counter Rashad's wrestling tactics. Liddell also has uncanny takedown defense.

Want to be ballsy? Kampmann, Lambert, Pellegrino, Palhares? That's a bit of a suicide move. I believe Lambert could potentially control MacDonald, but the payoff isn't huge. I like Kampmann as a single bet, but betting Palhares against such an experienced veteran like Dan Henderson is tough. Parlays may not be the way to go in this event, but if the upsets occur... huge money can be made.

What are your suggestions? Any good parlays heading your way? Let us know, keep the comments coming.

Click on the banner below to begin betting on UFC 88!

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Dan Henderson | Jason Lambert | Jason MacDonald | Kurt Pellegrino | Martin Kampmann | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares | Thiago Tavares | UFC 88



UFC 88 Breakthrough: Preview & Staff Predictions

by Leland Roling 9/5/2008 4:16:00 PM
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Time has been hard to come by as of late, but I've managed to fit some in-depth analysis in for some of the upcoming UFC events as we head into September. We start out the UFC's month with a fairly lackluster fight card in UFC 88: Breakthrough. Liddell vs. Evans, Franklin vs. Hamill, and Henderson vs. Palhares aren't blockbuster battles that casual fans will be clamoring over in the hours leading up to the event. Nonetheless, let's take a look at some of the battles we'll see on Saturday night.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans


Let's face it... this isn't a main event headlining fight to anyone who follows the UFC adamantly. Chuck Liddell holds wins over some of the best fighters in the world while Rashad Evans has decisioned himself to an 11-0-1 undefeated record. At 21-5, Liddell is arguably one of the top light heavyweights in the world, and he's the UFC's money making public icon to the sport. His status alone with the UFC gives him a shot at redeeming most of his key losses on the way back to the title. Could this fight be one of those redeeming wins that would jolt him back into the title picture? I wouldn't put it past the UFC no matter how much I disagree with it.

Striking is going to be the major difference in this matchup. Liddell is not only a seasoned veteran of the sport, but he's one of the most lethal strikers in the light heavyweight division. Using strafing movements and odd angles to land blows, he'll likely work a ranged striking game while keeping away from Rashad's strengths in the wrestling game.

Evans doesn't have anything to offer in this fight. He can't fight at range with Liddell. He lacks knockout power in the striking game. His wrestling abilities will likely be countered by Liddell's takedown defense, and he'll almost assuredly become mincemeat if he tries to shoot for a takedown with Liddell's sprawl. How can Rashad win this fight? Unless we see a vast improvement and much more dynamic mixture of his skills, Liddell should easily win this fight.

Leland's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via TKO/KO, Round 2

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Franklin's move to 205 could become an interesting battle on the ground if Hamill's power is as overwhelming as we've seen in some of his past battles. Hamill registers at 6'2” while Franklin comes in around 6'1”. Hamill should technically have the muscle and length to make this an interesting matchup. However, Hamill's striking game is still in a developing stage. Franklin, on the other hand, is seasoned in crushing opponents from the top position. It makes for some contemplating as to how this fight could work itself out.

Franklin's experience and power should help him prevail over a rather green Matt Hamill. Not only is his striking much more seasoned and powerful, but he still has an able ground game to counter Hamill. Franklin will be tough to overpower as well, but Hamill does have the strength to potentially do just that. I wouldn't count on it happening though.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO/KO, Round 2

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares

I was a bit torn on this matchup when it was first announced to be occurring at UFC 88. Palhares has the potential to become the next Paulo Filho. A powerful submission fighter with improving standup and great transitioning skills, Palhares presents some problems for Henderson. Can he actually submit Henderson? Unless Palhares can prove that his jiu-jitsu is in the arena of the Nogueira brothers or Anderson Silva, I'm definitely leaning toward a “No” answer.

Henderson will have the advantage on his feet with some good striking skills coupled with fantastic power in his hands. Palhares will be looking to push this battle to the floor quickly to use his power grips to submit Henderson. If Henderson doesn't pay attention, he could potentially fall victim to a signature leglock from Palhares. I still expect Henderson to be careful and squeak out a decision win over Palhares.

Leland's Prediction: Dan Henderson via decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt
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UFC 88 Breakthrough: MMA-Analyst.com's Joe Schmitt breaks it down...

by Joe Schmitt 9/5/2008 12:09:00 PM

First off, let me issue another quick apology for not getting any articles up this week. Things have been especially crazy for Leland and I over the past few months, and things are finally settling down. I hope to continue posting on a semi-regular basis and hopefully we'll be back in full swing before long.

This weekend, UFC 88 heads to Atlanta, Georgia. I'm going to skip the usually fighter introductions because truthfully, those can be found anywhere on the net. Let's get to the real reason we write these articles, the predictions and analysis.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans

Chuck Liddell comes into this fight after winning a unanimous decision over former PRIDE middleweight champion, Wanderlei Silva. Chuck and Wanderlei had an epic three round war that was nothing short of spectacular.

Rashad comes into this fight having won a controversial split-decision over Michael Bisping. He is the TUF 2 heavyweight winner and is undefeated in his career.

Simply put, Chuck destroys grapplers. It's really hard for me to find anyway for Rashad Evans to win this fight outside of a lucky punch or kick. Chuck has excellent takedown defense and is able to utilize good footwork and work angles to effectively counter punch his way to victory. Rashad has one benefit on his side. He trains with Greg Jackson and his teammate, Keith Jardine, was able to defeat Liddell. The problem for Rashad is that he doesn't possess the leg kicks needed to keep Chuck at bay. I believe this fight will look similar to Chuck and Tito's two fights with Rashad looking to shoot sporadically and getting pounded on the feet. 

Joe's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via T/KO round 2.

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Rich Franklin looks to make his return to the light heavyweight division against former TUF contestant Matt Hamill. Hamill is a Division III wrestler that has show good power inside the Octagon. I have went back and forth on this fight a little bit only because of Franklin's jump in weight. Hamill will be decidedly bigger and will most likely have the power advantage. Rich will want to keep this fight on the feet and try to take advantage of Hamill's sloppy stand up defense. Hamill has big power in his punches and pushes a relentless pace. He always comes forward, but the thing that scares me is that sometimes he drops his hands to his sides and swings looping punches. If Franklin can keep this fight on the feet and avoid Hammil's takedowns, which is no small task I might add, then he can definitely win this fight. Hamill needs to relentlessly push the pace and keep Rich on his heels. When he sees an opportunity, he needs to put Rich on his back. From there, Hamill must have improved on his top control to keep Rich neutralized. I don't think he'll be able to do it, and I think this will be a closer fight than most expect.

Joe's Prediction: Rich Franklin via Unanimous Decision.

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares More...



UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre Preview & Predictions

by Leland Roling 4/17/2008 3:18:00 PM

The UFC makes its debut in Canada with an already sold out event in Montreal at the Bell Centre on Saturday night. The featured bout matches up Matt “The Terror” Serra against Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in a highly anticipated rematch  of their UFC 69 battle that saw Matt Serra upset St. Pierre. Rich Franklin will make his return to the Octagon after his second loss to UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. He'll take on a venerable Travis Lutter who will test Franklin's submission defense. Other bouts scheduled include Canadian Kalib Starnes vs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry, Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek, Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy, and Jason MacDonald vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerkson, along with a slew of undercard bouts that are sure to entertain us. Let's take a look at the card.

Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra
UFC Welterweight title bout

Oddly enough, Georges St. Pierre comes into this bout as a huge favorite while Serra once again remains the heavy underdog. St. Pierre's destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 79 on short notice was stunning in the capacity of being unbelievably dominating. The fact that he can outwrestle any fighter in the weight class is a testament to his training regiment and work ethic. Wrestlers with plenty of credentials to back up their “smack” continue to fall to St. Pierre's superior skills. Pierre also has dynamic striking that is unparalleled in the division, but he has shown weakness in the standup at times, namely against his opponent, Matt Serra.

Serra's abilities are underrated by many fans of the sport. He has very good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and his strength can become a huge factor as the fight progresses. He's very tough to defeat by a finish, and he's never been submitted in MMA competition. I firmly believe it'll be a good test for St. Pierre if it becomes a chess match on the ground. The x-factor is Serra's heavy hands. He has some decent striking skills for a smaller welterweight, and with power behind them, we've seen what they can do against St. Pierre.

Bottom line: St. Pierre should win this fight within the first three rounds. He has great power, athleticism, dynamic striking, range, reach, and is coming off a stunning performance against Matt Hughes. Serra definitely has a shot on his feet, but I don't believe he can submit St. Pierre on the floor. Serra has great submission defense, so I'd stray away from St. Pierre defeating him there, but I do believe he can work some wrestling skills to open up the striking.

Leland's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3

Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

Rich Franklin is looking to get back on the track back to another title shot. How many title shots can one have after being destroyed the previous two tries? We don't know, but Franklin is still a formidable opponent for anyone trying to make a run at Anderson Silva. He has good power, decent striking, big blow ground and pound, and he's not half bad on the ground either. He's a well-rounded fighter, but he isn't great in any one thing.

Lutter, on the other hand, is a great jiu-jitsu fighter on the ground, but he lacks the powerful hands that Franklin possesses. The biggest problem for Lutter is getting through Franklin's submission defense, a defense that has helped Franklin remain unbeaten by a submission throughout his 25 fight career.

Franklin should take this one. He has fantastic submission defense, and has the hands to defeat Lutter on his feet or on the ground. Franklin has taken on great grapplers in the past, and has always came through with his crushing ground and pound.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO, Round 2

Michael Bisping vs. Charles “Chainsaw” McCarthy

More...


MacDonald will fight Doerksen again, fueling the fire for Doerksen?

by LR 1/22/2008 4:30:00 AM
Edmonton Rush

Jason MacDonald doesn't get it. The 19-9 "Athlete" will take on Joe Doerksen, who sports a pitiful 1-5 record in the UFC and recently lost to TUF alum Ed Herman in an exciting 3 round war that ended with Herman's fist on Doerksen's chin. Despite the lost, Doerksen nearly had Herman submitted near the end of the second round, only to be saved by the bell. In any case, Doerksen at least provided some excitement to an otherwise uninteresting matchup for casual fans. Doerksen now faces a stiffer challenge in Jason MacDonald, the fight set for UFC 84 in Canada.

So, why am I saying MacDonald just doesn't get it? Plain and simple. Doerksen is Canadian, MacDonald is Canadian, clash of the Canadians on a Canadian card. When hasn't the UFC done something like this before? They do it quite often in the same areas of the country, pitting Ohio boys against one another or Midwesterners, or even Brazilians. The fact is that it's something they can minimally promote with at least some payoff in those regions. It also provides for some potential animosity between the two combatants, and it looks like MacDonald is now fueling some fire for Doerksen.

Secondly, Doerksen will be looking to revenge his loss to MacDonald, and to be perfectly fair, his jiu-jitsu is still dangerous to many fighters. Do I think MacDonald will be beaten by Doerksen? Probably not considering the beating he dished out on Doerksen in their last matchup, but the biggest factor in the works for this fight is the talent level in the division.

Silva cleaned it out. Franklin beat both MacDonald and Okami, the two front runners. MacDonald taking on a guy he already beat once isn't the end of the world for MacDonald's comeback to the top. Most importantly, he should rack up a good solid win over Doerksen, and then the UFC should set up a battle between MacDonald and some of the guys he himself has mentioned.

Bisping, Almeida, or Tanner would be great fights, and I'd much rather see those matchups right now. MacDonald has created some fire though. He has verbally said that this fight shouldn't be taking place because he's already beaten Doerksen. This could be a dark horse candidate for a bad blood matchup at UFC 84. Keep an eye on it.

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Jason MacDonald | Joe Doerkson | UFC 84



Why is the UFC remaining stagnant in signing new Middleweight talent?

by LR 11/16/2007 7:20:00 AM

In the past, I have been very critical that the UFC's middleweight division needs a kick in the ass. It seems that this statement hasn't been taken seriously by the UFC. The division is currently in a standstill due to the fact that Anderson Silva remains the undisputed middleweight champion and has no possible opponents that can challenge him for the title. Let's take a new look into the Middleweight possibilities or actually, the short list of possibilities.

UFC fails to convince Henderson

According to the UFC 78 Press Conference, it was said that Henderson is still not wanting to drop down to 185 lbs. to fight Anderson Silva. Is this a money issue? Is the UFC lowballing Henderson with a new deal? Fact of the matter is, the Middleweight division is by far one of the worst divisions in the UFC. It, in fact, is the least deep division in the promotion. What reason is there that Henderson wouldn't drop down to become the UFC champion at Middleweight?

The most obvious answer is that he would have to take on an ultra-dangerous Anderson Silva. Although Dan Henderson's Greco-Roman wrestling is a great counter for what Silva has to offer, Silva still possesses a black belt ju-jitsu ground game, a long reach and hard striking standup game, and has multiple tools to end fights. Henderson is a granite chin though. I imagine the fight has the potential to be a huge draw for many UFC fans. Does Henderson see that fight as a possible matchup that could hurt him? It's a possibility, but I think there are other motives.

I mentioned in my previous article that I felt Henderson was sticking to the Light Heavyweight Division because it garners bigger PPV draws, more money, and more prestige. Historically, the heavier weight classes bring bigger fights and draws. Could he simply want to fight through one of the best divisions in the world? I believe so. Henderson wants to fight the absolute best in the world, and the LHW division contains some of the greatest in the world. If he suffers another loss, he may take the money and drop to 185 to fight Silva in a card that I believe would definitely draw some huge numbers.

Unsigned talent goes elsewhere

Jason "Mayhem" Miller was one of the better prospects out there that could have at least made the division a bit more lively. He has some quality wins over Robbie Lawler and Denis Kang and sports an impressive 19-5 record. He has a fantastic submission game and decent standup, but more importantly to the UFC, he is a self-promoting machine. He has a large fanbase of MMA fans behind him who love his antics as seen during a few of the latest UFC events, a few great skit videos featuring Miller that include a spoof of the TapouT! reality show, and he loves to make grand entrances. I have no doubt that he would have gained more fans in the UFC and the extra exposure could have brought more fans into the sport or at least excitement in seeing him fight in the poor Middleweight division. Miller will fight Sean Salmon on the December 15th HDNet card.

Frank Trigg is another decent Middleweight at the end of his career, but nonetheless presents a fairly significant challenge to Anderson Silva because he has some very good wrestling skills. Barring a rear naked choke, Trigg could actually present a big problem for Silva. He has some decent power, but he doesn't have the range to stand with Silva. If Trigg went into the fight with a solid gameplan of putting Silva to the floor and was able to do that, it'd be a very interesting fight. He also presents problems to other fighters in the UFC, but his age is always a factor. This seems to be a case where White is still bitter over comments Trigg made during a few PRIDE broadcasts about the UFC. Trigg claims that he made them in regards to what PRIDE wanted him to say. Nonetheless, I'm still a fan of Frank Trigg for the mere fact that he will tell you exactly what he thinks. As Trigg mentioned in one of his most recent shows, "The UFC made me usable, Fox Sports made me famous, and my mouth made me infamous." Very true, Trigg's battle with Matt Hughes was a great battle, his gig on the PRIDE series put his face in front of millions, and his rants and pre-fight hype he generated made him infamous. For those reasons, Trigg should have been given a chance in the UFC. Trigg is now fighting Edwin Dewees on the December 15th HDNet card.

According to GracieMag.com, Ronaldo Jacare (7-1) didn't sign with the UFC, but has now decided to fight again in Jungle Fight a.k.a. MMA World League now. Why? This baffles me and I'm not sure if the UFC just lowballed him or what, but he will get absolutely no exposure in Jungle Fight and he will fight tomato cans until his name pops up later down the line again after he is sporting a ridiculous record. Kind of like Jason Reinhardt. Jacare is a Brazilian ju-jitsu black belt who placed second in the world at the ADCC championships in his weight class, only losing to Roger Gracie. He's ended every fight inside the first round. It's beyond me as to why he didn't sign with the UFC.

Well, then who the hell did they add?

Evan Tanner will make a new run back into the UFC... heh. One of the big points that people make about Evan Tanner is the fact that he self taught himself many of the techniques he used in the Octagon in his early days. Tanner sports a legendary 32-6 record and has fought nearly everyone. Baroni, Lawler, Terrell, Franklin, Sinosic, Ortiz, Minowa, Herring, Buentello, the list goes on. He hasn't fought since April of last year though. Why you might ask? Apparently Tanner had an excessive drinking problem that caused him to basically turn into a full blown alcoholic who roamed the country, randomly posting on his MySpace about his problems. Hit up Fightlinker for details.

This isn't an overwhelming good signing. Tanner is fairly old and may have a lot of ring rust due to such a long layoff. He also will have to battle through now coming off the alcohol and possibly have a very hard time doing so. Will we see a clean and sober Tanner who could begin another dominance run in the MW division? I doubt it, but people said the same thing about Randy Couture being too old to do much in the heavyweight division.

Existing talent

David Terrell (6-2) was the prospect that many were looking toward to bring some excitement to the division. Terrell never fights. He's basically permanently on the injured reserve list in the UFC because he seems to be the most injury prone athlete that I can remember besides Kerry Wood and Mark Prior of the Chicago Cubs. Terrell is a product of Cesar Gracie Ju-Jitsu Academy. It has produced fighters such as Nick and Nate Diaz and Jake Shields. Terrell is much of the same type of fighter with a great submission game on the ground. He would have presented some significant problems to the top tier of the Middleweight division. I wonder if we will actually ever see him fight in the UFC again.

Nate Marquardt was a fighter that was supposed to give Silva a challenge. He didn't, and I don't see him ever giving him a tough challenge. Okami is gone apparently because the UFC felt he was a boring fighter. Bad move by the UFC. Jason MacDonald can't even get through Franklin. Franklin has been destroyed twice by Silva in devastating fashion.

The Zuffa-owned WEC has Paulo Filho, who is a friend of Silva. Filho did state that he would fight Silva if he had to. I think the time is now that "you have to" pit these two great fighters against each other to help the UFC's MW division. Zuffa seems to want to pit both the organizations against each other. In the latest oddity, the WEC will go up against a UFC special on SpikeTV. WEC 31 has some unbelievable fights, but can it compete on Versus with the UFC on basic cable. The UFC will air a "Best of 2007" show at the same time. Very strange indeed.

Bisping, Evans, Henderson, and even Machida could drop down to Middleweight and make the division worth a damn, but it seems that they are content at sitting at Light Heavyweight for now. Machida has the best chance of making a splash in the LHW division so far since his style is unbelievably elusive, but I feel like he may get the White pinch for being boring. It is rumored that Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou could fight Machida on December 12th. Bisping and Evans winner may fight Tito Ortiz, so both could be locked into the division, or the loser may drop down. Henderson obviously is sticking to his guns and staying at Light Heavyweight. Will the UFC keep him out of fighting until he gets pissed enough to drop? I wouldn't put it past Dana White.

Final Thoughts

So, what can the UFC do since they've already allowed many of the natural middleweights to head to other organizations? Matt Lindland is available. Get over the little argument you have with him and just sign him. He is an opponent with a Greco-Roman background that could potentially counter Silva's strengths well. Matt Hughes has also talked about moving up to middleweight to take on Silva after he wins the Welterweight title. If Hughes can win his title back, look for that fight to happen as well. The most believable development in the division would be the fighters dropping down to the division. The loser of the Bisping vs. Evans fight could definitely make the cut to 185. Henderson is still on the line, but we could eventually see that happen. Machida is now fighting Soukodjou at UFC 79, and he still stands a very good chance at making waves at light heavyweight.

In the end, the UFC doesn't have a plethora of options at all. They will be banking on Hughes to win to increase his standing again. Lindland is still a non-option for Dana White. Henderson won't drop down and many of the other options have signed with other organizations or are existing fighters who are either injured or too far down the line to make an impact within the next year. Hopefully we will see some activity from the UFC into grabbing some talent out there. The upcoming TUF season will also feature Middleweights, so we could see a huge influx of talent.



UFC 77: The Complete Preview and Analysis

by LR 10/17/2007 1:23:00 PM
UFC 77 comes into Cincinnati, Ohio for a fight card that doesn't seem to be too intriguing to the casual MMA fan, but for the hometown fans, it will be spectacular. With many names on the card from the Ohio area, it should be electric in the arena. The middleweight title will be on the line, and a possible contender spot in the heavyweight division is up for grabs as well. There also looks to be some exciting main card battles along with some undercard fights that I hope make the telecast. Let's go in-depth into this card and see what we can dig up.

Main Event: Middleweight Championship Bout
Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva

I will spare you the history lesson on both fighters. Silva is a devastating Muay Thai striker. He absolutely obliterated Franklin in their first bout. Although I believe Franklin didn't realize the caliber of striking that Silva possessed in the first matchup, Silva's standup is unbelievably effective. His great range and reach allow him to stay away from counters while he picks opponents apart. He has great kicks and his knees complement his clinches perfectly. His height is an unfair advantage for him at Middleweight along with his Muay Thai. Along with his standup, his ground game is supposedly improving significantly and he does have a black belt in ju-jitsu from the great “Minotauro”. His long legs would definitely make it difficult for opponents in his guard as he would have multiple options to try to submit opponents. You can really make a case that he is becoming the complete fighter.

Franklin is coming off two straight wins in a run to regain the title. He absolutely crushed Jason MacDonald, but won a very boring and drawn out battle with Yushin Okami. Franklin trains with Jorge Gurgel in ju-jitsu and possesses a brown belt. He is primarily known for his standup skills and from his style, looks to always want to go for the knockout and ground and pound in his battles. Interestingly enough, Franklin has only lost twice in his entire career. Once to Silva and again to Lyoto Machida. He looks to keep on winning and retain the belt in this very tough title bout at UFC 77. This is also the last fight on his contract, so coming out on top could definitely be financially great for him.

As cliché as my analysis will sound, it's what I think. Anderson Silva is a dominant fighter in both aspects of the game. In the words of Joe Rogan, his striking is INSAAANNNEEE. His range and height are huge factors in his game. He can stay at range and still throw with power. Once he tags an opponent, he moves in quickly for the kill. Clinches are almost impossible to break once he sinks them in as we saw during the first Franklin bout. If you've seen some of Silva's other battles before he came to the UFC, he pulled off some amazing things in many of them. He straight elbowed Tony Fryklund while standing with him and knocked him out cold with one of the quickest standing elbow blows I've ever seen. His only big loss was to Ryo Chonan. Ask anybody out there what one of the most unbelievable comebacks in MMA are. Chonan vs. Silva is probably on their list. Chonan pulled off a flying scissor kick to heel hook after he was literally being demolished by Silva's standup. The one thing Chonan exploited was Silva's long legs. Chonan used a surprise move that is rarely used to catch him off guard. Franklin should somehow gain wisdom from that battle. He needs to surprise Silva in some manner during this fight. The only way I see this going down as an upset is if Franklin can catch Silva with a punch and proceed to blast him to the ground and pound him out immediately. If Franklin lets this battle go for too long, he runs the risk of dropping his hands or getting desperate and making mistakes. You do not want to make mistakes against a guy like Anderson Silva. With all of that said, it's obvious who my pick is. Anderson Silva, second round TKO/KO.

Tim Sylvia vs. Brandon Vera

This is a tough fight for me to analyze due to the fact that I am not a fan of Tim Sylvia. No, I don't have any problems with him personally, but I was very put off by his performances in the past. The “Maniac” out of MFS in Iowa has put up a 23-3 record in his MMA career with notable wins over Andrei Arlovski and Jeff Monson recently. He's primarily a standup fighter that uses his immense size to overpower people and trap them. He does have a fairly tough chin and has went to decision against guys who have a superior ground game but were unable to finish him. This will be a good test to see where Tim currently is.

Vera is coming off a long layoff after a dispute with the UFC over his contract. He stated that his manager wasn't telling him some of the things the UFC was saying to him and offering him. After canning his manager, he has re-signed a contract and we now have the possibility of seeing him in title contention fairly quickly with the leaving of Randy Couture.

Brandon is primarily a Muay Thai striker with a good wrestling and submission grappling game on the ground. He has a dominating style and is very quick to take his opponents out. He has faced some of the better competition and still remains undefeated. His most notable wins are over Assuerio Silva, Frank Mir, and Justin Eilers. If you haven't seen some of Brandon Vera's fights, do so. He's one of the best up and coming heavyweights out there.

In my best Frank Trigg impression - “Here's the thing...” I'm not a big believer in all the hype that Tim Sylvia is going to come out guns blazing and hungrier than ever because he wants to regain the title. Sure, the dominating Couture is out of the picture for now but that simply does not expunge the fact that Sylvia is solely focused on striking. I have said in the past that MMA is moving so quickly, guys are learning multiple martial arts, and ground fighting and standup are both equally important. Sylvia would have to show me some kind of miracle step in his game for me to ever consider him beating someone as top caliber as Vera. Sylvia could potentially knockout Vera and his size isn't something to laugh about, it can help him win. But Vera has taken on behemoths before and if he studied the Randy Couture fight, he knows it's easily possible to cut down the tree that is Tim Sylvia. I have a feeling that Vera will come out and stand with Sylvia for a bit. If he can't seem to get inside on Sylvia and land some strikes, I see this fight going down to the canvas quickly. Instead of predicting a decision, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Vera will end this fight by submission in the second round.

Yushin Okami vs. Jason MacDonald

A bout that will probably determine who fights for the title next, it looks to actually be fairly intriguing to this writer. MacDonald is currently 19-8 with only one loss in his last 8 fights. That loss being to Rich Franklin. MacDonald is currently fighting out of Jackson Fighting Systems. MacDonald has a background in ju-jitsu, but possesses a decent standup game. He likes to throw the leg kicks at times to cut opponents down, but loves to throw the punch to shoot combination to take opponents down. Interesting because I feel Okami will be looking to do the exact same thing.

Yushin Okami is a veteran to the game of MMA. He currently has a record of 20-4, with his only recent loss coming from Rich Franklin. In the matchup, Okami nearly submitted Franklin late in the third round, but Franklin escaped amazingly. Okami was impressive in the third round, but it was far too late for Okami to overcome the first two rounds he lost.

Okami has some decent power in his hands, but his main strength is his wrestling ability. He is able to really impose his will against opponents, working in the clinch, and taking them down. MacDonald has had some unimpressive showings in the past. His battle with Starnes awhile back showed that even a lankier guy like Starnes can easily take down MacDonald. MacDonald will undoubtedly have huge problems with Okami's power and size. Look for Okami to win by submission in the second round, but don't count out a decision here.

Eric Schafer vs. Stephan Bonnar Slam Canada

Schafer is a mainly a ju-jitsu fighter with some decent standup skills. He has some decent Muay Thai skills from the looks of his previous fights. He shoots pretty quickly and can catch opponents off guard rather quickly. He lost his last fight against Michael Bisping at UFC 66, but had rattled off 4 straight wins previously. Schafer's ground experience may be tough for Bonnar to handle, but Bonnar's size may be rather hard for Schafer to takedown.

Bonnar was the runner-up in the first TUF season. He's currently 10-4, only losing to notable names like Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, and Lyoto Machida. He's been criticized for not being able to finish opponents, but did come out blazing after his suspension for steroids against Mike Nickels. His recent move to Las Vegas to join Xtreme Couture gym will also bode well for his success. He should have a solid gameplan and a very tough opponent to defeat. Bonnar has a durable chin that can take a lot of damage as well.

This is an interesting fight because Bonnar isn't exactly the finisher that many other fighters in the division are. Are we on the verge of seeing a different Stephan Bonnar? I think we may be, especially after changing gyms. Schafer, although a decent grappler, will have a tough time taking down a big guy like Bonnar. Bonnar also has some fairly decent grappling of his own. I think we may see a surprise here and Bonnar finishing this fight by submission. I'll take second round. It's a stretch, but either way, I believe Bonnar will win this bout.

Josh Burkman vs. Forrest Petz

Exact same records, exact same weight, exact same height, that's the line on the fight. Both fighters come in at 19-4, according to the UFC. I have Burkman at 8-4 by the Fight Finder. But leaving that out of the conversation, Burkman is a Team Quest fighter who has some solid wrestling skills, but has seemed to focus on working huge haymakers lately. He's most recognizable due to his stint on TUF Season 2. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of Burkman since his fight against Karo. I will say that I understand his decision to try to stand against Karo because he did have much more power and wanted to avoid his judo skills. Fact is, he loops almost everything he throws and it was fairly easy for Karo to avoid most of those shots.

Petz is currently 13-4, different from the UFC.com record as always. He recently defeated Luigi Fiorvanti at UFC Fight Night 10 by unanimous decision. It was by far his best win to date. Stylistically, Petz and Burkman match up well as far as standup goes. Both have great power, but Petz definitely has an advantage as far as technique goes. If anybody watched the Karo Parisyan matchup, Burkman's looping punches weren't fooling anyone. Petz may have power and standup, but Burkman does have a respectable wrestling game that he absolutely needs to use in this fight.

I believe this battle will come down to striking vs. wrestling. Unless Burkman is living under a rock, he should realize that Petz isn't that great on the ground. Burkman doesn't have a reach advantage or any type of real range fighting, so he will have to avoid taking a huge hit when trying to get inside. I think Burkman will be looking for redemption from his fight against Parisyan. He gassed in the middle of the fight and should have great cardio considering the guys he trains with at Team Quest. Along with a great gameplan, Burkman should have the skills to take out Petz. It could be a great brawl if they both decide to stand though. I'll take Burkman by decision.

Kalib Starnes vs. Alan Belcher

For me, Starnes has been a bit of a surprise. Most notably known for his stint on the Ultimate Fighter 3 series, he won a decision victory over Chris Leben at UFC 71 after dropping a hard fought battle to Yushin Okami at UFC 64. His real knock has been his cardio game, but overall he has had some decent battles with some mid-tier fighters. Starnes overall is a very good ju-jitsu practitioner who usually is able to stick to a solid gameplan. He also has some underrated power in his fists, although he sometimes sits hesitant when up against a powerful wrestler. With an 8-1 record and his only loss to Yushin Okami, he stands to gain a step up if he can get past Belcher.

Alan Belcher comes straight out of the deep south in Biloxi, Mississippi. He's currently 10-3 with 4 solid fights in the UFC to his credit. In his debut in the UFC, he took a tough decision loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 62, but regained his footing with a knockout of Jorge Santiago in the third round of their bout via a head kick. He came back looking to prove himself, but was beaten by Kendall Grove at UFC 69. UFC 71 proved to be a gain as he choked out Sean Salmon inside a minute. Alan seems to be a guy that could be a gateway between the low-tier and mid-tier fighters in the Middleweight division. To be fair to Belcher, both losses were taken on extremely short notice.

Belcher is primarily a Muay Thai and ju-jitsu fighter. Early in his career, he was known for showing some brutal knockout power, but has recently become a choke artist with the better competitive fights he has taken. This should be a fairly decent matchup considering both fighters have some decent power along with good ground tactics. Both of these guys will be looking to stand for a bit, but I believe Starnes will try to take down Belcher if he can get close enough. Belcher will be a bigger Middleweight since he did fight at Light Heavyweight at one point. Starnes has never been a large fighter, but he is rather tall. Belcher also equals his height though. This is a much tougher fight to predict than I really thought. It's really a matter of who shows up with a good gameplan. I want to pick Belcher, but I think Starnes is the more calculated fighter. He's very meticulous in his game, and I think he may have the patience to beat Belcher. Starnes by second round submission.


Jorge Gurgel vs. Alvin Robinson

Let me first start off by admitting that Alvin Robinson was my sleeper pick in his last fight. I thought Robinson would come out and handle Kenny Florian. I was wrong. But I wasn’t completely wrong. Robinson did come out of the gate and throw Florian around a bit, but Florian’s much improved ground tactics proved way too much for Robinson. Robinson isn’t a slouch on the ground either. He’s a brown belt in ju-jitsu and trains under Royce Gracie. Robinson (8-2) doesn’t have really any impressive wins on his record, but he does have a very aggressive style of fighting. He loves to rush opponents and pummel them into the clinch, enabling him to put them to the ground. His tenacity really allows him to cause his opponent to make a lot of mistakes and allows Robinson to get the back of a lot of his opponents and choke them out. Will that happen in this fight?

Jorge Gurgel is currently 11-2 with his most recent wins over Diego Saraiva and Danny Abbadi. If you can remember his last battle at UFC 73, which earned the Fight of the Night award, Gurgel won the scrappy fight by decision, but suffered a broken jaw and had some internal bleeding. Obviously, the guy can take a beating and keep on going. Aside from his toughness and cardio, Gurgel is notably a Brazilian ju-jitsu black belt with 9 of his wins coming by submission. Since facing stiffer competition, he hasn’t had the luck in the submission aspect as he has in the past.


This is one of the tougher bouts to pick. Although Gurgel has the BJJ background, so does Alvin Robinson. Gurgel hasn’t been able to pull off a submission win in awhile, and his BJJ skills aren’t spectacularly better than Robinson’s skills. Robinson also has some very aggressive “bulldoggish” skill. He seems to run at guys and just pounce on them. Gurgel is very tough though, and he has some great cardio. We have yet to see if Robinson’s cardio is up to Gurgel’s conditioning. Gurgel is a bigger 155'er than many of the other fighters in the division. He also loves to standup, but has great ju-jitsu to fall back on. Add in his granite chin and you have a pretty complete fighter that needs to work on his standup to really be dominant. Don't count out Robinson though, he's very explosive. To be honest, Gurgel isn't a finisher and he lacks the straight knockout power it takes to beat someone like Robinson. Robinson goes for the knockout or submission fairly quickly and he tries to end fights. I'm going to take Robinson as my sleeper pick, surprise 2nd round TKO/KO.


Demian Maia vs. Ryan Jensen

Demian is a newcomer to the UFC hailing from Sao Paulo, Brazil. He’s primarily a submission grappler with a background in ju-jitsu. He has a record of 5-0 in mixed martial arts and is fairly new to the cage, but he isn’t new to grappling… at all. The winner of the 2007 Abu Dhabi Combat Club’s Submission Grappling Championship at 77-87kg, Maia has plenty of credibility on the mat. Along with his ju-jitsu, he also has a background in karate. He brings in a much needed danger in the Middleweight Division, but he is still fairly new to the MMA game. Even with that said, his ground game is good enough to win most bouts without the need for an extensive standup game.

Jensen is recently coming off a loss to Thales Leites at UFC 74. After Lutter withdrew from the fight due to injury, Jensen was faced with a significant challenge in up-n-comer Leites. Jensen is mainly known for his solid grappling abilities, but isn’t significantly better than anyone in that facet of the game. He has standard striking, but was unable to nullify Leites’s ground game in their bout. Jensen does have some notable wins over Rob Kimmons and our favorite TUF Fighter, Marlon Sims. I don’t see Jensen’s luck turning in this fight. Demian, although fairly new to the cage, should easily be able to pick apart Jensen on the ground. I’m going to stretch it and say that Maia will win in the first round by submission.


Matt Grice vs. Jason Black

A classic matchup of two wrestlers with extensive backgrounds, this battle should prove to be an interesting ground battle. Black, known for his unique mutton chops facial hair, is a veteran to the mixed martial arts scene. He sports an impressive 21-3-1 record with stints in PRIDE: Bushido events, Extreme Challenge, and recently made an appearance at UFC Fight Night 10, in which he dropped a tough loss to Thiago Tavares. Black trains with the Miletich Martial Arts with a great background in wrestling. He has fought some of the best in the world, most notably Shinya Aoki at PRIDE Bushido 12. He has problems against opponents who have extensive ju-jitsu backgrounds, but his own wrestling abilities make him dangerous on the ground.

Matt Grice is fairly new to the sport of mixed martial arts. A product of Oklahoma wrestling, he won the state championship four years straight. To get a sense of how hard that is, he was winning a championship when he was a freshman! His most recent fight was against Terry Etim at UFC 70, in which he dominated Etim for the first four minutes of the bout. Thirty seconds later, Etim managed to pull of a guillotine choke that ended the fight, amazing the English crowd. Although Grice lost, he showed great potential. He had no problems taking down Etim, and his ground and pound was fairly accurate. Fans should look forward to seeing this wrestling prodigy work the cage


With that said, it may seem I’m pro-Grice in this bout. I liked the way he handled Etim, but Etim didn’t have a wrestling background and his takedown defense was horrible. That won’t be the case in this fight. Both fighters are accomplished wrestlers with a good amount of power to boot. Grice won’t have an easy time taking Black down and simply pounding him. Stylistically, they match up for a ground war. Black’s experience is a definite factor here. He has over seven years of solid MMA experience and has fought a few great fighters out there. I don’t anticipate a knockout by Grice either, unless he has simply improved is standup a lot. I give this one to Black by a chokeout, second or third round. I wouldn’t put this past going to a decision though.


Final thoughts

It doesn't look to be an impressive card, but I am excited to see how Franklin does. He could potentially surprise all of us, as well as Sylvia. Vera and Silva should both win, but both Sylvia and Franklin may have some determination and improved training to aid their bounce back to the title. I'm looking forward to possibly seeing Robinson upset Gurgel, although I think Gurgel's granite chin and cardio will see him to a win. There are definitely some undercard battles that will be interesting. It looks to be a decent card and for any MMA fan, will satisfy your hunger for a bit.

Wikipedia, OnTheMat.com Interviews, and Fight Finder at Sherdog.com were all used to obtain background information on each fighter along with Google.




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