TUF 7 Finale taking shape, four more bouts analyzed...

by Leland Roling 4/24/2008 8:22:00 AM

The Ultimate Fighter Season 7 Finale event on June 21st is starting to take shape with four more additional bouts announced today by the UFC. Spencer Fisher will take on Jeremy Stephens in a lightweight bout while Jeremy Horn will try to once again defeat Dean Lister in a rematch from their King of the Cage 31 bout back in 2003. Drew McFedries will try to knockout Marvin “Beastman” Eastman, and Josh Burkman takes on jiu-jitsu fighter Dustin Hazelett. Although these fights don’t exactly have that excitement surrounding them as we have seen from the Ultimate Fight Night cards and past TUF Finales, there are some battles here that could determine where these fighters are at right now.

Spencer Fisher vs. Jeremy Stephens

On paper, this could be another scrappy war for Spencer Fisher. Both Stephens and Fisher are standup fighters with some decent ground and pound abilities, but can also show the submission game when the chance is available. While Fisher is beginning to maintain a role as a gatekeeper to the mid-echelon talent of the lightweight division, Stephens is beginning to work his way up in the division. He’s 2-1 in the UFC with his lone loss to Din Thomas at UFC 71, and Fisher will be a step up in competition for him. Fisher should be able to use his experience, striking, and overall toughness to pull out a win, but Stephens has a shot with good power in the standup.

Jeremy Horn vs. Dean Lister

A lot of fans are making a fuss about this fight due to the rematch aspect of this fight, but Horn vs. Lister could prove to bore fans who want to see a standup fight. Lister hasn’t been impressive in his stints in the UFC, and “Gumby” has hard times in his last two battles. Nonetheless, Horn is a veteran of the sport and has the submission skills on the ground to defeat a guy like Lister. It could be a grappling chess match on the ground, and I’m always game to see those fights unfold.

Drew McFedries vs. Marvin Eastman

Eastman is known for his appearance, but he certainly hasn’t used it to knock opponents out in the past. At 15-7-1 with 9 wins via decision, the perception that Eastman can flat out strike may be a farce. McFedries, on the other hand, is a power striker that uses his heavy hands to put opponents out. He’s coming off a tough loss to Patrick Cote, but his power alone can change the tide of a fight in no time. Can Eastman avoid the blow for the entire fight if it goes to decision? Will McFedries have the gas this time around? Not a bad battle to add to this free card.

Josh Burkman vs. Dustin Hazelett

I’m definitely not convinced that Josh Burkman can beat up on Dustin Hazelett. Hazelett showed some improved standup in his fight with Josh Koscheck, but Hazelett’s artwork comes from the jiu-jitsu ground game. He has very slick technical grappling skills that can easily overwhelm anyone in his guard. Burkman’s standup needs to improve significantly before I can believe he’s a presence in the division. Looping haymakers don’t win fights unless your opponent walks into one. Let’s hope this one turns out to be a decent scrap, but it could end quickly if Hazelett gets it to the ground.



UFC 81: Our Extensive Preview and Predictions

by LR 2/1/2008 7:28:00 AM

On Saturday night, a new Heavyweight champion will be crowned and the birth or re-birth of a career will happen for one particular fighter. Brock Lesnar will be looking to start a new career as a mixed martial arts fighter as he makes the crossover from entertainment-style pro wrestling to the fight game. His opponent, Frank Mir, hopes to impress the Mandalay Bay crowd by showing us a bit of the old Frank Mir that won the UFC Heavyweight title at one point.

The UFC's Heavyweight title will also be on the line as Tim Sylvia will take on former PRIDE Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The fight has been deemed the “interim” title bout, but it seems to merely be a tactic to keep Couture within his contract limits. This should determine the real champion. The card will also feature a lightweight bout between Tyson Griffin and Gleison Tibau, a battle between middleweights Terry Martin and Marvin Eastman, and the return of Ricardo Almeida to MMA. Jeremy Horn will also make a return to the UFC in a matchup against possible contender Nathan Marquardt.

Main Event: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Heavyweight Division

Brock Lesnar (1-0) is a complete unknown in the sport of mixed martial arts. His lone match against Min Soo Kim at K-1 Dynamite in June proved that Lesnar can at least pass guard and take down an opponent, but Kim wasn't exactly the prototypical litmus test to see if Lesnar has what it takes to be a champion. Frank Mir (10-3) could possibly be that test.

Mir is a world class jiu-jitsu practitioner with a plethora of weapons on the ground in the form of a wealth of knowledge in the submission game. That's where it ends for Frank Mir. He has the phenomenal ability to end the fight quickly once on the ground, but his standup is lacking. He isn't particularly dangerous in the striking game, and being on the ground with a much bigger, much strong Brock Lesnar could be his downfall.

Lesnar brings a wealth of wrestling credentials to the MMA world. He finished his collegiate career as a two-time NJCAA All-American, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Champion, and the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion, finishing with a ridiculous record of 106-5 overall. There is no doubt that he will have good takedown abilities, and it will be very tough to deal with Lesnar's strength. Lesnar also seems to be fairly light on his feet. It's been said that he has some decent striking and quick footwork, but those skills will be proven on Saturday night. Can Lesnar avoid the submission? That's the big question.

I simply can't pick Frank Mir in this fight for a few reasons. He won't be as strong as Lesnar, and Lesnar's wrestling skills will be tough to counter with the amount of power he has. Mir's standup is horrible, and it'd have to improve considerable if Lesnar is to be in danger of being knocked out. Mir has had too many lackluster performances in the past as well, and his cardio is always a question later in the fight.

Leland's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

From the moment this fight starts, I look for Lesnar to immediately shoot on Mir and begin to work some ground-and-pound. The question that needs to be answered is this: Is Mir going to have an answer for Lesnar from his back? Many people think so, but I don’t. I think Lesnar’s strength and wrestling ability will overpower Mir.

I can guarantee you that Lesnar has been doing nothing but training submission defense and polishing up his wrestling. If I was Mir, I would think about throwing knees sporadically. He may catch Lesnar with a knee when he shoots for a takedown. However, I think there’s a slim chance that happens. Look for a stoppage in the second round from strikes.

Joe's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

Over aggressive wrestling is not uncommon among relatively green fighters.  They stay in the danger-zone for far too long and the result is often a submission loss. Mir is vet so he’ll no doubt be relaxed entering the fight.  All the pressure is on the Lesnar as a result of his self aggrandizement, while Mir is simply on the comeback trail with the chance to fell the new kid in town. I’m going against my gut feeling, and taking Mir with a triangle-choke win.

John’s Prediction: Frank Mir via submission, Round 2
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Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Heavyweight Division

Tim Sylvia (24-3) will try to win the UFC title once again as he takes on the iron chin of Antonio Nogueira. Sylvia comes into this bout after much criticism over his win over Brandon Vera. In the bout, Sylvia and Vera both had moments in which leaning on each other was a tactic to extend the matchup and cause the crowd to boo in disapproval. Sylvia simply did what he could to win the fight, and Vera broke his hand in the first round that made his striking completely useless.

This isn't the first time Sylvia has been labeled being the cause of a boring fight. His style consists of straight jabs, some kicks, and clinches, but never any ground game. He usually tries to move in and out and rarely allows himself to get in a spot to be taken down. His main weapon in many of his fights is his physical size and reach, and it makes for some boring standup battles in which his opponents can't seem to find a way to get inside or take him down.

With that said, Nogueira has a tough task ahead of him. He has excellent jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and has some phenomenal boxing skills on his feet. The only problem is that he will lack reach on Sylvia, and it will be hard not to take heavy blows trying to get inside on Sylvia. Unless Nogueira can work a clinch and somehow put the big man down, it's going to be a downhill battle for Nogueira in the beginning. The best chance he has is by tiring Sylvia and hopefully getting him to the floor.

Can he actually achieve that goal? I can't decide, and this is the toughest pick I've had in awhile. Nogueira has taken beatings from the best in the world. Fedor crushed him with blows, and he still managed to last. He has an iron chin, great boxing, and excellent ground tactics. I have faith that he can take down Sylvia, especially considering Vera was able to do so at least once in his fight. That may be all it takes. I'll go with the long shot.

Leland's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 4

I’ve went back-and-forth on this fight the last couple of days. I’ve watched a plethora of tape on both fighters. The key to winning for Nogueira is obvious; he must get this fight to the ground. Nogueira has good boxing, but he’s going to have to work on the inside. Sylvia is going to want to stay away from Nogueira and paw at him with his jab. I can see Tim using the same style he beat Brandon Vera with. Close the distance quick with strikes and push Nogueira against the fence.

Nogueira is going to have a tough time getting inside on Tim as he doesn’t throw many hooks. He likes to throw combinations straight down the middle which leaves his opponent no room to work on the inside. If Nogueira watched any tape, he’ll know that Tim throws a lazy left jab and that he can counter that with an overhand right. I think Nogueira’s chin can keep him in the fight long enough to get Tim to the floor and submit him.

Joe's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 3

I look at the two, and simply think Nogueira is a better fighter. Minotauro has better submission skills than anyone Timmy has faced (Mir included) and has also shown real susceptibility to the combination of quick hands and control on the ground.  I see this playing out much like the battle with Couture.  As the rounds wear on, the fight gets farther from Sylvia’s reach.  Minotauro grinds out a signature win.

John’s Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via unanimous decision
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See our predictions on the other matchups including Griffin vs. Tibau, Eastman vs. Martin, Horn vs. Marquardt, and the rest of the card by clicking More...

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