UFC 88 Breakthrough: Preview & Staff Predictions

by Leland Roling 9/5/2008 4:16:00 PM
promo/ufc
Time has been hard to come by as of late, but I've managed to fit some in-depth analysis in for some of the upcoming UFC events as we head into September. We start out the UFC's month with a fairly lackluster fight card in UFC 88: Breakthrough. Liddell vs. Evans, Franklin vs. Hamill, and Henderson vs. Palhares aren't blockbuster battles that casual fans will be clamoring over in the hours leading up to the event. Nonetheless, let's take a look at some of the battles we'll see on Saturday night.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans


Let's face it... this isn't a main event headlining fight to anyone who follows the UFC adamantly. Chuck Liddell holds wins over some of the best fighters in the world while Rashad Evans has decisioned himself to an 11-0-1 undefeated record. At 21-5, Liddell is arguably one of the top light heavyweights in the world, and he's the UFC's money making public icon to the sport. His status alone with the UFC gives him a shot at redeeming most of his key losses on the way back to the title. Could this fight be one of those redeeming wins that would jolt him back into the title picture? I wouldn't put it past the UFC no matter how much I disagree with it.

Striking is going to be the major difference in this matchup. Liddell is not only a seasoned veteran of the sport, but he's one of the most lethal strikers in the light heavyweight division. Using strafing movements and odd angles to land blows, he'll likely work a ranged striking game while keeping away from Rashad's strengths in the wrestling game.

Evans doesn't have anything to offer in this fight. He can't fight at range with Liddell. He lacks knockout power in the striking game. His wrestling abilities will likely be countered by Liddell's takedown defense, and he'll almost assuredly become mincemeat if he tries to shoot for a takedown with Liddell's sprawl. How can Rashad win this fight? Unless we see a vast improvement and much more dynamic mixture of his skills, Liddell should easily win this fight.

Leland's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via TKO/KO, Round 2

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Franklin's move to 205 could become an interesting battle on the ground if Hamill's power is as overwhelming as we've seen in some of his past battles. Hamill registers at 6'2” while Franklin comes in around 6'1”. Hamill should technically have the muscle and length to make this an interesting matchup. However, Hamill's striking game is still in a developing stage. Franklin, on the other hand, is seasoned in crushing opponents from the top position. It makes for some contemplating as to how this fight could work itself out.

Franklin's experience and power should help him prevail over a rather green Matt Hamill. Not only is his striking much more seasoned and powerful, but he still has an able ground game to counter Hamill. Franklin will be tough to overpower as well, but Hamill does have the strength to potentially do just that. I wouldn't count on it happening though.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO/KO, Round 2

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares

I was a bit torn on this matchup when it was first announced to be occurring at UFC 88. Palhares has the potential to become the next Paulo Filho. A powerful submission fighter with improving standup and great transitioning skills, Palhares presents some problems for Henderson. Can he actually submit Henderson? Unless Palhares can prove that his jiu-jitsu is in the arena of the Nogueira brothers or Anderson Silva, I'm definitely leaning toward a “No” answer.

Henderson will have the advantage on his feet with some good striking skills coupled with fantastic power in his hands. Palhares will be looking to push this battle to the floor quickly to use his power grips to submit Henderson. If Henderson doesn't pay attention, he could potentially fall victim to a signature leglock from Palhares. I still expect Henderson to be careful and squeak out a decision win over Palhares.

Leland's Prediction: Dan Henderson via decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt
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UFC 88 Breakthrough: MMA-Analyst.com's Joe Schmitt breaks it down...

by Joe Schmitt 9/5/2008 12:09:00 PM

First off, let me issue another quick apology for not getting any articles up this week. Things have been especially crazy for Leland and I over the past few months, and things are finally settling down. I hope to continue posting on a semi-regular basis and hopefully we'll be back in full swing before long.

This weekend, UFC 88 heads to Atlanta, Georgia. I'm going to skip the usually fighter introductions because truthfully, those can be found anywhere on the net. Let's get to the real reason we write these articles, the predictions and analysis.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans

Chuck Liddell comes into this fight after winning a unanimous decision over former PRIDE middleweight champion, Wanderlei Silva. Chuck and Wanderlei had an epic three round war that was nothing short of spectacular.

Rashad comes into this fight having won a controversial split-decision over Michael Bisping. He is the TUF 2 heavyweight winner and is undefeated in his career.

Simply put, Chuck destroys grapplers. It's really hard for me to find anyway for Rashad Evans to win this fight outside of a lucky punch or kick. Chuck has excellent takedown defense and is able to utilize good footwork and work angles to effectively counter punch his way to victory. Rashad has one benefit on his side. He trains with Greg Jackson and his teammate, Keith Jardine, was able to defeat Liddell. The problem for Rashad is that he doesn't possess the leg kicks needed to keep Chuck at bay. I believe this fight will look similar to Chuck and Tito's two fights with Rashad looking to shoot sporadically and getting pounded on the feet. 

Joe's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via T/KO round 2.

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Rich Franklin looks to make his return to the light heavyweight division against former TUF contestant Matt Hamill. Hamill is a Division III wrestler that has show good power inside the Octagon. I have went back and forth on this fight a little bit only because of Franklin's jump in weight. Hamill will be decidedly bigger and will most likely have the power advantage. Rich will want to keep this fight on the feet and try to take advantage of Hamill's sloppy stand up defense. Hamill has big power in his punches and pushes a relentless pace. He always comes forward, but the thing that scares me is that sometimes he drops his hands to his sides and swings looping punches. If Franklin can keep this fight on the feet and avoid Hammil's takedowns, which is no small task I might add, then he can definitely win this fight. Hamill needs to relentlessly push the pace and keep Rich on his heels. When he sees an opportunity, he needs to put Rich on his back. From there, Hamill must have improved on his top control to keep Rich neutralized. I don't think he'll be able to do it, and I think this will be a closer fight than most expect.

Joe's Prediction: Rich Franklin via Unanimous Decision.

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares More...



UFN 13 Preview and Predictions: Upsets anyone?

by Leland Roling 4/1/2008 9:49:00 AM

Get ready, fans! This could very well be one of the most exciting cards put together by the UFC in quite some time. UFC Fight Night 13 will take place on Wednesday night from Broomfield Event Center in Broomfield, Colorado, and it will feature a highly anticipated matchup between Kenny Florian and Joe Lauzon. Thiago Alves will also make a step up in competition against Karo Pariysan, and the event will feature well known names such as Matt Hamill, Houston Alexander, Gray Maynard, Frankie Edgar, Din Thomas, Clay Guida, and recent TUF contestants George Sotiropoulous, Roman Mitichyan, Tommy Speer. This could very well be the “Stacked” event we've all been waiting for. Props to Fightlinker for pushing the idea of making this event a 3 hour live televised card. The UFC won't acknowledge it, but I will. Great job, FL.

Before we get to my picks and Joe's predictions, let me just say.. I'm crazy for picking the fights I did, but I felt that there were some solid upset picks in the bunch.

Main Event: Joe Lauzon vs. Kenny Florian

This is a battle that I've been waiting for since it was announced. Kenny Florian's last seven battles have featured the former TUF contestant against some formidable opponents as he progressed up through the ranks. The climax was his loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 64, but he honorably took the fight to decision against a full load in Sherk. After the loss, he defeated Dokonjonosuke Mishima, a tough and explosive Alvin Robinson, and was putting the elbows on Din Thomas before he suffered a blown knee. Riding a three-win streak, Florian will be looking to stop the up-and-coming Joe Lauzon, and potentially win himself a title shot against BJ Penn.

Lauzon has been on a tear recently. He's won his last six fights in finishing fashion with a huge knockout win over former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver. The only real problem that Lauzon has had is that the level of competition he has faced has been subpar since Pulver. Melendez wasn't suited well against Lauzon's grappling, and Reinhardt's record was padded with horribly lopsided competition. Lauzon has the striking power in his hands and some excellent boxing skills, but Florian can counter his grappling and has some decent boxing himself. Florian is also very well versed in using his elbows in the ground and pound, and he's as tough as they come. This should be one exciting battle.

Without letting my biased get in the way too much, I'm admittedly a big Joe Lauzon fan. IT geek turned MMA fighter, who doesn't love it? On a purely analytical basis, Lauzon is great in most areas of mixed martial arts. He has great standup, good ground and pound, and can be controlling on the ground. Florian also has similar skills, and I don't believe Lauzon will be able to completely control him. The x-factor here is Lauzon's training at BJ Penn's facility in Hilo, Hawaii. Could it potentially have improved significantly enough to nullify the ground game? I think Lauzon has some ways to end this fight in which Florian may not be able to unless he can catch Lauzon in a submission.

Leland's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via submission, Round 3

This is an extremely close match-up between two above-average fighters. Florian has the better stand-up, but Lauzon has the better wrestling. Lauzon isn’t great at any one thing, but he is good at everything. Lauzon has decent striking, some decent power, good wrestling, and some ferocious ground-and-pound. Florian has good Muay Thai, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-JJitsu. I think Joe will stand with Kenny for a while until he sees an opening to take a shot. From there he will look to work his ground-and-pound, but he will need to avoid Florian’s submissions. I think Joe’s training with BJ Penn will help him on the ground en route to a unanimous decision.

Joe's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via unanimous decision

Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves

Karo has a bit of a task ahead of him in this one. Parisyan has been known recently for winning some weak decisions that were fairly uneventful. Parisyan has some big problems in this fight though, and it's evident if we look at his track record. Parisyan hasn't faced huge power in his last few fights, in fact, his last nine fights haven't featured overwhelming striking. Lytle and Serra could have been seen as potential forces in the standup game, but Serra is mainly a big puncher who hopes for the lucky blow while Lytle was winning his way to decisions back when Parisyan took him on. This will definitely test Parisyan's abilities to avoid the big shots.

Alves has unbelievable Muay Thai strikes, devastating leg kicks, and great striking even when he's backpedaling from danger. I'm going to pick Alves in the upset because of his destructive striking. He finishes fights in crushing fashion, and if Karo allows the fight to go into the later rounds, he has much less of a chance of defeating Parisyan.

Leland's Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO/KO, Round 2

Alves has done something that is nearly impossible to do: he stopped Christ Lytle in his last fight. However, I don’t think he’s ready for “The Heat.” Karo is extremely durable and brings a relentless attack throughout the fight. In fact, he has only been stopped twice in his career, both by former lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Alves doesn’t have the wrestling to control Karo, and Karo will use his wild stand-up to close the distance and unleash his unique judo game. Fortunately for Karo, I think this is a fight he can actually finish. Expect a submission late in the fight, most likely by kimura.

Joe's Prediction: Karo Parisyan via submission, Round 3

Tim Boestch vs. Matt Hamill

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UFC 81: Our Extensive Preview and Predictions

by LR 2/1/2008 7:28:00 AM

On Saturday night, a new Heavyweight champion will be crowned and the birth or re-birth of a career will happen for one particular fighter. Brock Lesnar will be looking to start a new career as a mixed martial arts fighter as he makes the crossover from entertainment-style pro wrestling to the fight game. His opponent, Frank Mir, hopes to impress the Mandalay Bay crowd by showing us a bit of the old Frank Mir that won the UFC Heavyweight title at one point.

The UFC's Heavyweight title will also be on the line as Tim Sylvia will take on former PRIDE Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The fight has been deemed the “interim” title bout, but it seems to merely be a tactic to keep Couture within his contract limits. This should determine the real champion. The card will also feature a lightweight bout between Tyson Griffin and Gleison Tibau, a battle between middleweights Terry Martin and Marvin Eastman, and the return of Ricardo Almeida to MMA. Jeremy Horn will also make a return to the UFC in a matchup against possible contender Nathan Marquardt.

Main Event: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Heavyweight Division

Brock Lesnar (1-0) is a complete unknown in the sport of mixed martial arts. His lone match against Min Soo Kim at K-1 Dynamite in June proved that Lesnar can at least pass guard and take down an opponent, but Kim wasn't exactly the prototypical litmus test to see if Lesnar has what it takes to be a champion. Frank Mir (10-3) could possibly be that test.

Mir is a world class jiu-jitsu practitioner with a plethora of weapons on the ground in the form of a wealth of knowledge in the submission game. That's where it ends for Frank Mir. He has the phenomenal ability to end the fight quickly once on the ground, but his standup is lacking. He isn't particularly dangerous in the striking game, and being on the ground with a much bigger, much strong Brock Lesnar could be his downfall.

Lesnar brings a wealth of wrestling credentials to the MMA world. He finished his collegiate career as a two-time NJCAA All-American, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Champion, and the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion, finishing with a ridiculous record of 106-5 overall. There is no doubt that he will have good takedown abilities, and it will be very tough to deal with Lesnar's strength. Lesnar also seems to be fairly light on his feet. It's been said that he has some decent striking and quick footwork, but those skills will be proven on Saturday night. Can Lesnar avoid the submission? That's the big question.

I simply can't pick Frank Mir in this fight for a few reasons. He won't be as strong as Lesnar, and Lesnar's wrestling skills will be tough to counter with the amount of power he has. Mir's standup is horrible, and it'd have to improve considerable if Lesnar is to be in danger of being knocked out. Mir has had too many lackluster performances in the past as well, and his cardio is always a question later in the fight.

Leland's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

From the moment this fight starts, I look for Lesnar to immediately shoot on Mir and begin to work some ground-and-pound. The question that needs to be answered is this: Is Mir going to have an answer for Lesnar from his back? Many people think so, but I don’t. I think Lesnar’s strength and wrestling ability will overpower Mir.

I can guarantee you that Lesnar has been doing nothing but training submission defense and polishing up his wrestling. If I was Mir, I would think about throwing knees sporadically. He may catch Lesnar with a knee when he shoots for a takedown. However, I think there’s a slim chance that happens. Look for a stoppage in the second round from strikes.

Joe's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

Over aggressive wrestling is not uncommon among relatively green fighters.  They stay in the danger-zone for far too long and the result is often a submission loss. Mir is vet so he’ll no doubt be relaxed entering the fight.  All the pressure is on the Lesnar as a result of his self aggrandizement, while Mir is simply on the comeback trail with the chance to fell the new kid in town. I’m going against my gut feeling, and taking Mir with a triangle-choke win.

John’s Prediction: Frank Mir via submission, Round 2
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Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Heavyweight Division

Tim Sylvia (24-3) will try to win the UFC title once again as he takes on the iron chin of Antonio Nogueira. Sylvia comes into this bout after much criticism over his win over Brandon Vera. In the bout, Sylvia and Vera both had moments in which leaning on each other was a tactic to extend the matchup and cause the crowd to boo in disapproval. Sylvia simply did what he could to win the fight, and Vera broke his hand in the first round that made his striking completely useless.

This isn't the first time Sylvia has been labeled being the cause of a boring fight. His style consists of straight jabs, some kicks, and clinches, but never any ground game. He usually tries to move in and out and rarely allows himself to get in a spot to be taken down. His main weapon in many of his fights is his physical size and reach, and it makes for some boring standup battles in which his opponents can't seem to find a way to get inside or take him down.

With that said, Nogueira has a tough task ahead of him. He has excellent jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and has some phenomenal boxing skills on his feet. The only problem is that he will lack reach on Sylvia, and it will be hard not to take heavy blows trying to get inside on Sylvia. Unless Nogueira can work a clinch and somehow put the big man down, it's going to be a downhill battle for Nogueira in the beginning. The best chance he has is by tiring Sylvia and hopefully getting him to the floor.

Can he actually achieve that goal? I can't decide, and this is the toughest pick I've had in awhile. Nogueira has taken beatings from the best in the world. Fedor crushed him with blows, and he still managed to last. He has an iron chin, great boxing, and excellent ground tactics. I have faith that he can take down Sylvia, especially considering Vera was able to do so at least once in his fight. That may be all it takes. I'll go with the long shot.

Leland's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 4

I’ve went back-and-forth on this fight the last couple of days. I’ve watched a plethora of tape on both fighters. The key to winning for Nogueira is obvious; he must get this fight to the ground. Nogueira has good boxing, but he’s going to have to work on the inside. Sylvia is going to want to stay away from Nogueira and paw at him with his jab. I can see Tim using the same style he beat Brandon Vera with. Close the distance quick with strikes and push Nogueira against the fence.

Nogueira is going to have a tough time getting inside on Tim as he doesn’t throw many hooks. He likes to throw combinations straight down the middle which leaves his opponent no room to work on the inside. If Nogueira watched any tape, he’ll know that Tim throws a lazy left jab and that he can counter that with an overhand right. I think Nogueira’s chin can keep him in the fight long enough to get Tim to the floor and submit him.

Joe's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 3

I look at the two, and simply think Nogueira is a better fighter. Minotauro has better submission skills than anyone Timmy has faced (Mir included) and has also shown real susceptibility to the combination of quick hands and control on the ground.  I see this playing out much like the battle with Couture.  As the rounds wear on, the fight gets farther from Sylvia’s reach.  Minotauro grinds out a signature win.

John’s Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via unanimous decision
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See our predictions on the other matchups including Griffin vs. Tibau, Eastman vs. Martin, Horn vs. Marquardt, and the rest of the card by clicking More...

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UFC Rundown: New matchups announced

by LR 1/23/2008 4:41:00 AM
mmarulez.files.wordpress.com

The UFC has been hitting the news wire frequently as of late with fighters beginning to reveal their potential matchups for their upcoming fights. Some of them are quite interesting due to the influx of newer talent that the UFC seems to be bringing along. The future is always a concern, and it looks like the UFC is giving some guys a chance to make a splash in their careers. Let's take a look.

Josh Koscheck vs. Dustin Hazelett - UFC 82

This matchup is a bit deceptive. Most people see this fight as a one-sided affair with Koscheck's outstanding wrestling pedigree dominating an unknown Dustin Hazelett. The problem here is that most fans don't see Hazelett fight since he has been featured mainly on undercards.

Hazelett (10-3) has had some phenomenal performances as of late in the cage. He submitted Jonathan Goulet at UFN 11 in impressive fashion scoring an armbar victory in just 1:14 into the first round. He's currently on a three-fight win streak, and this is definitely a move in the right direction as his skills improve.

Koscheck will be looking to begin another ascension into the upper ranks, but Hazelett's jiu-jitsu could prove to be troublesome. Nonetheless, Koscheck's top control is good, and he could essentially make another run for the title.

David Heath vs. Tim Boetsch - UFC 81

After Heath's bout was scratched from UFC 81 due to an injured Thomas Drwal, the UFC put the light heavyweight back on the card and paired him up with newcomer Tim Boetsch (6-1).

Boetsch is primarily known for his 2007 IFL semifinal battle with "The Janitor" Vladmir Matyushenko. In his only career loss, Boetsch did show an ability to survive against the technically better Matyushenko. Many consider Vladmir to still be quality UFC material, and with Boetsch taking him the distance and being a fairly green fighter, he could improve dramatically in the coming months. He'll get his chance to make something happen against Heath.

Heath hasn't been exactly impressive in his last two fights. To be fair however, Renato Sobral is a world-class grappler and Lyoto Machida could very well be a dark horse candidate for the title. Boetsch isn't at their skill level, so it should be litmus test for Boetsch, and a gauge to see where Heath is at right now.

Diego Sanchez vs. David Bielkheden - UFC 82

Although I'm still holding out for news after this fight that Marcus Davis may fight Diego, Sanchez does need to fight another battle before that can potentially happen. The UFC seems to think so as well.

Diego will be matched up with David Bielkheden (12-5). This puts an end to the rumors that Diego would fight Roan Carneiro. It also marks another Swede making his debut in the UFC, a market that the UFC seems to be hitting hard now. Per Eklund, fellow Swede, was defeated by Sam Stout in a spirited effort at UFC 80 this last weekend.

Bielkheden holds a win over current UFC fighter Charles McCarthy although it was back in February of 2004. The most notable matchup on his record is taking on Mitsuhiro Ishida at PRIDE Bushido 13 in November of 2006, dropping a decision to the Japanese wrestler.

He should prove to be an able test for Sanchez even though his name isn't known in the casual fanbase. He's a BTT member, and will have good training partners to supplement his skillset training. With a well-rounded grappling game and some power at times, he could be an upset pick.

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Tags:

David Heath | Diego Sanchez | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck | UFC 81 | UFC 82 | Tim Boetsch | David Bielkheden




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