Post UFC 80 Analysis: Werdum gets title shot, upsets change the landscape

by LR 1/21/2008 7:01:00 AM

UFC 80 proved to be an event full of surprises. Fabricio Werdum upset Gabriel Gonzaga and defeated him for the second time in his career. Although Werdum was an underdog coming into the bout, he proved that his time at Chute Box has only increased the level of skill in his standup game. Wilson Gouveia was all but defeated when he landed a flush left hook that put Lambert to the mat. Rivera crushed TUF bust Kendall Grove and most likely put him close to having his contract dropped, and Paul Kelly won the battle of the Brits with good top control and ground and pound over Paul Taylor. Let's breakdown some of the action and see where some of these fights stand in the divisional standings.

Werdum defies the oddsmakers and fans, defeats Gonzaga

Fabricio Werdum was in trouble. Early in the fight, Gonzaga landed heavy leg kicks that were visibily hurting Werdum's lead leg. As each kick landed, it looked more and more disheartening to Werdum's gameplan. Little did we know what was about to happen.

Werdum's tactics changed quickly. He began to check the leg kicks and move inside on Gonzaga. In one flash, Werdum's crushing knee strike landed stiff on Gonzaga's chin, hurting the giant. The beginning of an onslaught that lasted for much of the second round ended with Werdum continuing a crushing barrage of knees and punches that Gonzaga was unable stop. Werdum had silenced his critics and stopped Gonzaga for the second time.

Werdum now stands in a tough position. The talent in the division isn't exactly the cream of the crop near the top. Many disappointing performances from top level fighters has caused some disparity in the ranks. Although Tim Sylvia and Antonio Nogueria are definitely talented fighters in their own skillsets, the talent below them has yet to prove their contendership. Fortunately for Werdum, his win on Saturday has put him in line to fight the winner of Sylvia-Nogueira.

Penn wins Lightweight crown, announces that Sherk is dead

Unless you were living under a rock or completely ignorant to Penn's talent, you knew B.J. Penn was going to beat Joe Stevenson. The problem is that Stevenson came out scared and already looked beaten when he stepped into the cage. Only a cut in the first round by a devastating elbow would unleash the willpower in Stevenson to come at Penn aggressively, but it proved to be too little too late as the blood from Stevenson's cut was blinding him once he hit the ground.

Penn sunk in the choke and began the quest to defend his title against Sean Sherk in his next matchup. Sherk is coming off his steroid suspension and still claims he never used steroids knowingly. After the fight, Penn called out Sherk and said he was "dead" when they fight. Sherk replied and seemed to be itching to get back in the cage. It should make for a great matchup and fireworks should be in the making.

Gouveia, Rivera, and Kelly all pull off upsets

Gouveia's flash knockout of Jason Lambert on Saturday was impressive to say the least. Mostly known for his jiu-jitsu ground game, Gouveia dazzled the British crowd with a huge hook that instantly stopped the fight early in the second round. Gouveia withstood an onslaught of ground 'n pound from the bigger Lambert, only to pull out a comeback.

Although Gouveia's win was great for him on a fighting level, it brings some inconsistency to the number of fighters who are stepping up in the ranks of that division. Right now, the Light Heavyweight division is stacked toward the upper-echelon of the division. Another fighter in the mix would have been nice to see, especially after Lambert upset Sobral back at UFC 68. Lambert will have to wait his turn once more to move up, and Gouveia still has a long road ahead of him.

Rivera's future is much different. After what many call a stunning upset of Kendall Grove, he could be a secret weapon in a lacking Middleweight division. He combines power and aggressiveness that could prove to be too much for many of the fighters in the middle of the pack. It's almost certain he will run into Terry Martin again as a chance to redeem himself of his loss by knockout in :14 seconds.

Paul Kelly could be a factor in the low level portion of the Welterweight division. He has some standup skills, although Taylor surgically picked him apart in the exchanges. Kelly seemed to have the chin to stand the blows and put Taylor on his back where he found success for much of the fight. Taylor was stuck to the floor for nearly the entire fight after the first round, and Kelly merely used excellent ground and pound tactics to punish Taylor. One thing is for sure, those same tactics are always good for a bigger Welterweight to use in order to win fights.

Davis continues his dominance

Marcus Davis looks unstoppable. After losing to Melvin Guillard at TUF Finale 2, he has went on an eleven-fight win streak of pure dominance. Although he hasn't been tested by any of the top talent in the Welterweight division yet, he has been put against able opponents. He almost suffered defeat at UFC 75, but pulled out an impressive submission after being nearly knocked out by Paul Taylor. Crushing Jess Liaudin only increases his value.

The question can now be asked as to where Davis should go next. With Akihiro Gono out with a hand injury, should he make the instant jump and opportunity to be a contender? It's a tough proposition considering Davis hasn't fought that type of competition, but Fitch vs. Davis is an interesting fight. Fitch has great wrestling, but Davis's power seems to get better in every bout. It could have upset written all over it, or Fitch could blow Davis out of the water.

Final thoughts

UFC 80 was a great event. It provided exciting upsets, great performances from veteran fighters, and created some much needed excitement for the upcoming matchups that we will see in the future.

Penn vs. Sherk will be an unbelievable fight stylistically. A pure wrestling ground and pounder against the ultra-talented jiu-jitsu and striking of BJ Penn. Sherk claims he has better boxing, but that's definitely something we will have to see.

Werdum gets his title shot, although I'm hesitant to believe he can actually beat Nogueira or Sylvia. Sylvia is just too massive, and Nogueira has great boxing skill to back up his jiu-jitsu prowess. Werdum has a tough road ahead.

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McKiernan's Corner: UFC 80 Predictions

by John Mckiernan 1/17/2008 5:04:00 PM

Our very own John McKiernan takes a look at UFC 80's full card and puts down the tough decisions on paper with his predictions. Check them out here. 

Main Event:  Lightweight Championship
B.J. Penn (11-4-1) vs. Joe Stevenson (28-7)

This is the first time the Lightweight division has headlined a UFC card since the division’s reemergence, and it’s not a shabby looking matchup. This ‘plan B’ comes as a result of Sean Sherk’s suspension being upheld by the CSAC, forcing the UFC to strip him of his title in order to avoid setting a nasty precedent.

For a second option or fallback plan, much worse could’ve been put together. In fact, Stevenson makes for more exciting opponent than Sherk would have been. Stevenson’s jiu-jitsu and submission game is more diverse than Sherk’s. His striking is existent, which also puts him ahead of Sherk.

B.J. Penn is a great fighter, there’s no doubting that. The worldly recognized and respected fighter is in the second stage of his career. It’s public knowledge that “The Prodigy” fought with less focus and inspiration than what is necessary to be the best. This is no longer the case. Since Penn has returned to the Octagon, he has fought and given the best of the best all they could handle. 

The split decision loss to St. Pierre was crazily close. Anybody who stands across from Georges is at a disadvantage in two departments: athleticism and size. St. Pierre is the specimen at 170 lbs. Penn nearly took the fight and displayed everything he is known for; craftiness, calm demeanor and reality-defying flexible jiu-jitsu.

The rematch with Matt Hughes was an unfortunate loss. Penn dominated the former champ over ten minutes. He out-struck Hughes, and nearly submitted the champ twice. When the third round began, Penn looked like a different fighter. It’s a memory now, but Penn did injure his ribs in the 2nd while applying the choke. If not for that injury, he wins the fight. I don’t see how a case can be made for any other result.

Jens Pulver was Penn’s first fight at 155 lbs since his return back to the weight class. I don’t even need to remind you about what happened there. But I will. A 10-8 first round, and a seamless transition into the second round that led to a RNC.

How does Stevenson stack up? I’d argue quite well, but I don’t see him winning this. Stevenson is no slouch and gets a bum rap from many, simply for being involved with TUF. The season two champ is legitimate enough to deserve the chance to be a placeholder for Sherk.
 
That being said, Stevenson doesn't do anything better than Penn does. Striking goes to Penn.  Jiu-Jitsu and submissions go to Penn (over almost anyone). Level of competition goes Penn.  Stevenson is a hard dude to finish and has won 18 of his last 20, an amazing streak, but nobody on that list is the same caliber as Penn.
 
One advantage he might have is in the cardio department. If the fight goes the full five rounds, then he might eek out a decision. I don’t see it getting that far, and expect B.J. to be wearing the belt at the end of the night.

McKiernan's Pick:  Penn, Rd. 3, Submission
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UFC 80: Our Ridiculously In-depth Preview: Upsets Likely

by LR 1/17/2008 12:06:00 PM

After a highly entertaining event at the end of 2007 for the UFC, they will start things back up on Saturday with UFC 80: Rapid Fire from Newcastle, England. The event will feature the Lightweight championship title bout between Joe "Daddy" Stevenson and the rejuvenated B.J. Penn. Penn will come in as a favorite after easily demolishing Jens Pulver in his previous bout at the TUF Season 5 Finale. After a long wait for the title picture to unfold, Penn is now looking to prove that he is training harder and has refocused his energy to being the best in mixed martial arts. Fabricio Werdum will make his return to the cage after a lackluster performance against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 70: Nations Collide. Werdum has since moved to the renowned Chute Box camp to improve his striking and overall technique in the cage. He'll take on the former #1 contender in Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga who is fresh off a loss to Randy Couture. Let's take a brief look at each matchup, and we'll give you our predictions in the process.

Main Event: Joe Stevenson vs. B.J. Penn
Lightweight Championship Bout

Joe Stevenson will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. B.J. Penn has been renowned for being one of the best fighters pound for pound in the world for many years. His only knock has been his inability to go deep into fights. His cardio training was his most obvious flaw that contributed to that inability and opponents managed to squeeze out victories against him because of it. He'll have to show up in phenomenal shape with his gas tank full in order to take out the pitbull in Joe Stevenson.

On paper, Stevenson doesn't seem to have an overall advantage in any department. B.J. has been known to have very good striking ability, and has put guys out in the past using just his hands. Penn also has some of the best jiu-jitsu we've seen in the cage, and his flexibility only makes it even tougher for opponents to work him on the ground. Again, the one area in which Stevenson may hold an advantage is the cardio area. Stevenson has solid wrestling abilities with some good submission work to counter B.J., especially if he grows tired.

The big problem here for Joe is that he really doesn't offer much in any area of the fight. He shouldn't want to trade with B.J. for very long unless he can catch an aggressive Penn early. The ground is where Stevenson can dominate if he can get on top of Penn, but Penn's jiu-jitsu would likely cause Stevenson to be on the defensive, even while Penn is on his back.

This fight will come down to cardio. If Stevenson can make this 5 round battle last longer and longer as it goes on, he has a much better chance of putting Penn out for good. Penn will probably want to end this within a 3 round limit before pushing his cardio to the max. Penn's jiu-jitsu alone is scary enough to put him on top in this matchup. Stevenson is definitely a good bet though.

Leland's Prediction: B.J. Penn via submission, Round 3

I’m tired of starting my prediction of every B.J. Penn fight with, “If B.J. comes in shape, no one can beat him.” I believe B.J. Penn will come in shape, and I think he will show why many people, including myself, feel he is pound-for-pound one of the best fighters in the world.

B.J. has tremendous flexibility and uses it to his advantage to avoid takedowns. He has dynamic striking and a solid chin, as proven in his fights against Pulver, Machida and GSP.  Of course, his jiu-jitsu is also off the charts. The only knock against B.J. is his cardio. He has shown a tendency in the past to fade in the later rounds. I feel that for once, B.J. has learned his lesson and will be able to take Stevenson out.

Joe Stevenson is a very underrated fighter. Joe has a solid wrestling base, good striking, and an underrated jiu-jitsu game. Stevenson is going to have to control B.J. in this fight and set the pace of the fight. If he lets B.J. control the pace of the fight, it will be a short night for Joe Daddy. The problem for Joe in this fight is he doesn’t have a lot of ways to win. His striking isn’t crisp enough to hurt B.J., he doesn’t have the superior jiu-jitsu game, and I think he’s going to have a tough time taking Penn down. The best bet for Joe is to clinch with Penn and use that to set up his takedown. From there he should look to control top position and work some ground-and-pound. He’s going to have to be on the defensive, because B.J. can take your back at some weird angles. However, if he’s too defensive, the fight is going to get stood up. 

Joe's Prediction: B.J. Penn via TKO, Round 2
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A Big Step for the ‘Little Guys’

by John Mckiernan 1/14/2008 1:50:00 PM

The success of the UFC since the unveiling of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ has been inescapable.  One is hard pressed to explore any corner of humanity without hearing mention of Chuck Liddell or Forrest Griffin for example.  The culture of the Octagon is here in a big way.  If the growth of the last two years is any indication of what is to come, 2008 will be bigger and better than ever.  

The first ’08 offering from UFC is just days ahead and the main event of B.J. Penn - Joe Stevenson is evidence of the company’s growth alongside the maturing of the U.S. fanbase. For the first time since the resurgence of the Zuffa promotion, two lightweight fighters stand alone as the headliners on a pay-per-view offering. 

When Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca met in their now infamous title bout at UFC 73, the fight was coupled with Anderson Silva and Nathan Marquardt’s middleweight contest. The lightweight division has not been slighted in any manner by the UFC brass; it’s received its fair share of marketing and visibility. Roger Huerta, Kenny Florian and even Penn have nabbed top billing on SpikeTV, but the 155'ers have yet to drive a PPV outright. 

It’s a testament to the company and the education (self, in many respects) of the stateside fans that this is even a possibility. It was only years ago that the UFC lightweight division was dead. A four-man, two event tournament ended in a split-draw at UFC 41 between Penn and Caol Uno. The tournament was supposed to award someone the belt that Jens Pulver vacated, but instead had quite the opposite effect. The division was put on hold, and all but canned.

2004 and UFC 58 witnessed the resurfacing of the division, and return honors went to Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout. Yves Edwards and Jens Pulver both had the trumpets blaring and red carpet rolled out during their return fights, ready to be crowned the king and savior of the lightweights. Both were derailed in stunning fashion by younger, lesser known fighters. The losses by the two made for good TV, but did little to lend credibility to an already injured, hampered division. 
Enter B.J. Penn. The Hawaiian’s nomadic journey through the MMA world and weight classes has come full circle. “The Prodigy” made his lightweight return at the TUF 5 finale against the man who took the belt from him five years earlier. Penn dominated the bout and with a little convincing from Dana White, was given the opportunity to reign supreme. 

That opportunity comes on the 19th against TUF champions Stevenson. Sherk’s recent fall from grace is another blow that has been dealt to the UFC’s youngest and lightest division, but that’s all it is; just another blow. Another shot at a weight-class that has been killed more times than Kenny, but is still here, and stronger than ever.  

The division that gave us arguably three of the best five UFC fights in 2007 has been granted the chance to kick off ’08 in similar fashion. The fans and UFC have spoken, and the division finally appears secure and here to say. Something crazy could happen and throw the weight-class for a loop yet again. If history has anything to say on the matter, its words are ‘all bets are off.’  Not bad advice, especially if your betting on the fight being a bust. The fact it’s there, with top-billing, kicking off the UFC’s year says more than enough. Besides, the little guys always seem to do things in big ways.

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