Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn

The most anticipated bout so far this year has to be BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk. With Sherk’s positive steroid test and the UFC stripping him of his title, he definitely has much to prove to the UFC fanbase. Penn is also trying to prove that he has changed his ways from being only a fighter who relies on talent to a fighter who has the cardio and determination to dominate in the UFC. Any way you look at this fight, it’s going to be an epic war.

Stylistically, it’s a damn good matchup. Sherk has unbelievable cardio, great wrestling skills, and an active enough ground and pound game to keep the fight on the ground. Penn has K-1 striking abilities, good power, world class grappling game coupled with amazing flexibility, and an improved gas tank. Penn should have a standing advantage while Sherk’s wrestling skills should be the controlling factor on the ground. The x-factor lies in Penn’s jiu-jitsu and ability to attempt submissions with Sherk’s massive physique on top of him. If Penn can create some dangerous situations for Sherk, it could cause some shifts on the ground and potentially allow Penn to submit or at least escape to the feet where he can strike.

Historically, Sherk has only had problems with bigger Welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre had some great striking abilities to counter his shoots, and Hughes was the better wrestler. Penn will have a striking advantage, but it’ll be interesting to see how his flexibility becomes a factor in avoiding the takedowns.

Penn’s losses were to a much bigger Lyoto Machida, a controversial decision to Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, and to Matt Hughes at UFC 63. Penn claimed to have been hurt during his bout with Hughes, and it’s been speculated whether Penn simply ran out of gas due to a rib injury. Of course, that’s all in the past. A healthier Penn with a bigger gas tank could be the key to success against Sherk in this case. History would certainly point toward those areas needing improvement, and Penn has trained to do so.

Who should I pick? It’s a tough call. Many writers are leaning toward Sherk due to his wrestling ability being a huge problem for Penn. Ben Fowlkes pointed out that Penn has had problems against both St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the wrestling department, and that his standup striking hasn’t been a finishing factor since Paul Creighton. I disagree. Penn was defeating St. Pierre with below average cardio and damaged St. Pierre much more than anyone I’ve seen. Penn dominated Hughes in their first matchup, and was likely disadvantaged from the rib injury in their second fight. As for his striking, it’s still an effective way to damage opponents which usually causes them to try to shoot to the ground to recover. Penn is damaging his enemies with his strikes, but most of those opponents get submitted as they try to escape to the ground to avoid damage.

I’m going to take Penn by TKO/KO here. I think Sherk has some great submission defense, but Penn has the great striking to pick apart Sherk steadily and eventually pound him out. To be perfectly honest, I can see Penn pushing the damage to a point where Sherk sloppily shoots for horrible takedowns that leave him open for the submission, but I think Penn will want to make a statement here.

Leland’s Prediction: BJ Penn via TKO/KO, Round 3

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I’d have to see some significant changes from Tito Ortiz during the fight to give him a chance in this one. His last performance wasn’t his best, and it led to many fans claiming that Ortiz has past his prime of fighting in mixed martial arts. While I agree that he’s lost some of his old school beatdown skills, he’s still a fairly decent fighter against mid-tier talent. Is Machida a mid-tier fighter? No, he isn’t.

Ortiz has claimed that he’ll push the pace, get in Machida’s face, and put him into a world of pain on the ground where he likely won’t be able to use his elusiveness to evade. Although I believe only a quicker fighter can defeat Machida at this point and that the strategy he claims he wants to use has potential to work, can Ortiz actually pull it off? I don’t think so.

Ortiz hasn’t shown blazing speed in the cage, and Machida eats opponents alive when they bull rush him into the cage. While Machida may not have impressive knockout power, I still believe he possesses it. Great counter-striking has stopped Ortiz in the past, and Machida’s ground game isn’t a weakness for Ortiz to exploit.

Leland’s Prediction: Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

I’m going to admit that I am picking Wanderlei Silva here due to my biased emotions surrounding my love affair with the “Axe Murderer”. He’s a fighter that I believe truly captures the purest form of what a fighter can be, at least earlier in his career. No guts, no glory, he went out there in every fight and aimed to destroy his opponent.

With that said, I do believe it isn’t the best style matchup for Wanderlei. Jardine has reach, great kicks, and some able striking ability. It’s going to be a hard road to try to get inside on Jardine quick enough to pummel him with shots to put him down for the count. Liddell had problems trying to move closer to catch Jardine flush, but Jardine used his range with his kicks which made Liddell reset constantly.

My ace in the hole here is Wanderlei’s determination and fearlessness. He has proven that his cardio has improved well enough to give him the ability to take unbelievable punishment. I don’t believe Jardine will shell out as much as Liddell did, and I think Wanderlei will have a better opportunity at landing one of those huge bombs on Jardine’s chin this time around. Any way you look at it, Jardine is still a great bettor’s pick for this one, but I’m sticking with Silva for the win.

Leland Prediction: Wanderlei Silva via TKO/KO, Round 2

Goran Reljik vs. Wilson Gouveia

As the Light Heavyweights are beginning to thin out a bit as we move down the ranks, Wilson Gouveia apparently has a chance at pushing himself into a contention spot to battle it out with a top ranked fighter. I think that’s a bit absurd when he’s taking on a newcomer in Goran Reljik, and his only significant win was against Jason Lambert, who was crushing Gouveia until he revealed some sloppy boxing technique. Nonetheless, Wilson shouldn’t have a problem with this battle as he has a ground advantage against the grappling Reljik.

Gouveia has some decent striking abilities as well, and I’m more inclined on picking him because I think he’s a more complete fighter than Reljik. Reljik hasn’t fought tough competition at all, and most newcomers to the Octagon have had problems in the past. I’m taking Gouveia.

Leland’s Prediction: Wilson Gouveia via submission, Round 1

Quick Picks
Rameau Sokoudjou vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura: Two PRIDE veterans square off in this battle on Judo masters. Sokoudjou should be able to take this one by having a size advantage as well as some nice striking abilities. Leland: Sokoudjou via TKO/KO, Round 1

Ivan Salaverry vs. Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares: One of the fighters I’ve most wanted to see in the Octagon is Toquinho. I saw him pull apart Daniel Acacio and Fabio Negao’s legs with devastating leglocks at Fury FC back in December, and his transitions were incredible. Salaverry will be a good test for Palhares, but I’m sticking with Rousimar in this one. Leland: Palhares via submission, Round 2

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Jason Tan: Kim defeated DEEP champion Hidehiko Hasegawa in a non-title bout, and then was robbed of a win in the second bout. Regardless, Kim has the skills to beat some of the upper mid-tier talent in the UFC, and he shouldn’t have a problem with Jason Tan. Kim has some power, but Tan doesn’t have much to counter Kim’s well-rounded game. Leland: Kim via TKO/KO, Round 2

Christian Wellisch vs. Shane Carwin: This could be a pretty decent battle since Carwin hasn’t fought very competitive competition, but he’s supposed to be the real deal at heavyweight. Wellisch is a bit susceptible to the KO, and from what I’ve heard, Carwin is no slouch on the ground either. Look for Wellisch to get counter when he shoots and potentially get KO’d in the process. Leland: Carwin via TKO/KO, Round 1

Antonio Mendes vs. Thiago Silva: Mendes has some good power and submission abilities, and has even beat Fedor’s protégé in Kiril Sidelnikov, but he still has a heavy win count against subpar competition. Thiago Silva will have some power punching to counter Mendes if he wants to stand, and as all Brazilians seem to have, Silva also has a deceptively good ground technique. Leland: Silva via TKO, Round 1

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. John Koppenhaver: While many of you may be inclined to pick “War Machine” for his constant pace and leather flying, Yoshida is a damn nightmare in a cage. His record in Cage Force in Japan is 6-0, and he has some impressive wins to add to his record. He has great cage control, and uses it effectively to pin opponents and crush them. He could potentially be the next Okami with added TKO power. Leland: Yoshida via TKO, Round 1

Rich Clementi vs. Terry Etim: I’ve had some in-depth conversations revolving around this matchup, and I’ve always came to the conclusion that Clementi will come out on top. Grice crushed Etim until he was able to sink in a fluke guillotine to win, and he recently was defeated effectively by Gleison Tibau. I find it hard that he’ll be able to pull a win out against a veteran like Clementi, who is 5-0 in his last 5 fights. Leland: Clementi via TKO, Round 2